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Building ARIMA and ARIMAX Models for Predicting Long-Term Disability Benefit Application Rates in the Public/Private Sectors

The Society of Actuaries Health Section is pleased to make available a research report that investigates two statistical approaches to forecasting long-term disability benefit claims. The report was authored by Bruce Andrews, Matthew Dean, Robert Swain, and Caroline Cole of the University of Southern Maine.

The report can be accessed by clicking on the link to the right.

If you have any questions or comments regarding the report, please contact Steve Siegel, Research Actuary at

The Health Section would like to thank the following members of the project oversight group for their review and support of the project:

  • Warren Cohen
  • Tom Corcoran
  • Jay Jaffe
  • Richard Leavitt
  • Jinn-Feng Lin
  • Stuart Klugman, SOA Staff Fellow
  • Steve Siegel, SOA Research Actuary
  • Barbara Scott, SOA Research Administrator