Agenda
7:00 - 8:00 a.m.
Registration and Continental Breakfast
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8:00 - 9:45 a.m.
Opening General Session — Retirements Debate
Moderator: Mark Abbott, Guardian Life
Panelists: Bud Haslett, CFA Institute; Henry T.C. Hu, University of Texas law School, Michael Peskin, Hudson Pilot LLC, Ron Ryan, Ryan ALM, Inc., Zvi Bodie, Boston University School of Management
Panelists share their views and insights regarding the current investment environment and potential retirement investment strategies. Is there a pension crisis in the U.S.? What is it and how will it end? Risk-free versus risky investments? Demographic pressures. Globalization. Retirement security. Market turbulence. Is it possible to align corporate governance, shareholders and retirees?
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9:45 - 10:00 a.m.
Refreshment Break
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10:00 - 11:15 a.m. Concurrent Sessions 1
R1 — A Unified Science of Retirement Risk Management
Moderator: Mark Abbott, Guardian Life
Presenter: Zvi Bodie, Boston University School of Management
Actuaries, economists, investment managers and financial engineers face a common challenge to find efficient solutions to the pension problems caused by aging populations around the world. Fortunately, there is a rigorous conceptual framework that can unify all of these professionals in their search for better solutions. This presentation will outline its key elements.
Noncore EA Credit: 75 Minutes
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P1 — Liquidity Measurement & Management — Theory and Practice
Moderator: Chris Foote, CNO Inc.
Presenters: Jim Eibel, Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis (FHLBI); Bruce Phelps, Barclays Capital; Max Golts, Fidelity Asset Management
Liquidity measurement and management comprises a wide range of analysis and activity. In this session we will learn about a new theoretical framework ("liquidity derivative") for understanding and managing liquidity, as well as exploring a practical approach (FHLB Membership) gaining currency with insurance companies. In addition, Barclays started publishing Liquidity Cost Scores in 2007 which can be used to quantify the changes in the liquidity environment over the past five years. There will be examples for how to use liquidity measures in optimal portfolio construction, liquidity VaR calculations and credit spread decomposition.
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Q1 — Quantitative Credit Models — Theory and Practice
Moderator: Michael Schmitz, Milliman
Presenters: Andrew Davidson, Andrew Davidson & Co., Rich Owens, Kamakura Corporation, Sean Klein, Kamakura Corporation
Quantitative credit models have been used by a wide variety of market participants to analyze individual credits, as well as portfolios. Models have been used for many purposes and by many participants including pricing and valulation of portfolio credits as well as trading strategies and risk management programs. This session will provide some specific examples of such models and highlight some of their strengths and weaknesses in practice.
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E1 — The Impact of Low Interest Rates on Insurance Company Financial Statements
Moderator: Jason Grosse, Allianz Life
Presenters: Jesse Kling, Allianz Life; Warren Manners, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
Treasury rates are at historic lows, as are yields available on fixed income investments. This session looks at the impact of the low interest rate environment and how companies are responding. Areas to be covered include statutory and GAAP accounting impacts and the pressures on new business issuance.
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11:30 a.m. - 1:00 p.m.
Keynote Luncheon — Europe: Hazard or Opportunity? Impact on US and Global Economics
Moderator: Mark Abbott, Guardian Life
Presenters: Paul Skinner, Wellington Management; Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank Securities
The European sovereign debt crisis continues to have a significant impact on global economics and financial markets. Record levels of budget deficits, borrowing levels and borrowing costs, as well as political turmoil in numerous EU member countries, have continued to contribute to high levels of market volatility. This session discusses recent developments and macroeconomic issues in the Eurozone and their impact on global economics and financial markets.
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1:15 - 2:30 p.m. Concurrent Sessions 2
R2 — The Pension Crisis and Solutions, Part 1: The Global Financial Crisis, Retirement Security and a Possible Financial Innovation; Improving Liability Benchmarks and Risk Management
Moderator: Mark Abbott, Guardian Life
Presenters: Henry T.C. Hu, University of Texas Law School; Ron Ryan, Ryan ALM, Inc
Professor Henry Hu, of the University of Texas at Austin, will analyze certain aspects of how the global financial crisis has brought into sharp relief longstanding problems associated with defined contribution pension plans. In this context, he will also outline the possible creation of a new financial product: an inflation-protected, federally-issued annuity to be offered as an investment option in retirement plans.
Ron Ryan, CEO of Ryan Labs will present an overview of the issues and challenges and then propose and evaluate potential solutions, theory and their implications.
This session covers:
- The pension crisis is a $4 trillion dilemma. How did it happen? What will happen?
- The effect on Corporate EPS and Municipal budgets
- Asset Allocation should be based on Funded Ratio not the ROA
- Custom Liability Index as the Proper Benchmark
- Redefining Alpha and Beta
- New Accounting Rules that will alter Asset Allocation
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P2 — Portfolio Construction: Asset Allocation versus Risk/Strategy Buckets
Moderator: TBD
Presenters: Marc Carhart, Kepos Capital LP, Radu Gabudean, Barclays Capital
The traditional asset allocation approach to portfolio construction is increasingly coming under the microscope. We will explore alternative frameworks to portfolio construction using risk or strategy buckets, assessing strengths and weaknesses in relation to the traditional approach whether used as a replacement or as a supplement.
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Q2 — Risk Management in a Low Interest Rate and Potential Low Equity Growth Environment
Moderator: Frank Zhang, Pacific Life
Presenters: Andy Rallis, Met Life, Bogdan Ianev, Credit Suisse, Ross Bowen, Allianz
The low interest rate environment is supposed to help the economy but this and a potentially low equity growth environment have caused major challenges for the insurance industry's variable annuity (VA) hedging/risk management and fixed product ALM. In this session we will discuss the latest trend in the industry and implications to ALM and VA hedging.
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E2 — Sources and Effects of Accounting Basis Risk
Moderator/Presenter: Chris Foote, CNO Inc
Presenters: Lance Berthiaume, Towers Watson; John Dieck, Towers Watson
Accounting rules often create basis risk in insurance companies' financial statements. This risk arises when a company underwrites or manages an economic risk on a basis different than the accounting valuation basis, or when accounting rules apply different approaches to the two sides of the balance sheet. Accounting basis risk results in increased volatility in earnings/equity or in some instances depressed ROE. Some anticipate an increase in the significance of accounting basis risk under IFRS and the proposed changes to US GAAP and with statutory PBA. This session will examine situations that give rise to this risk under various accounting regimes, how companies react to this risk and areas of concern under proposed accounting rules.
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2:30 - 2:45 p.m.
Refreshment Break
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2:45 - 4:00 p.m. Concurrent Sessions 3
R3 — The Pension Crisis and Solutions, Part 2: Dynamic Derisking Investment Strategy
Moderator: Ed Martin, Dwight Asset Management
Presenters: Chad Hueffmeier, Buck Global Investment Advisors
Chad Hueffmeier, CIO of Buck Global Investment Advisors will introduce the theory and practice of dynamic de-risking for Pension Plans. Many pension plan sponsors desire to de-risk their plans but are underfunded or reluctant to extend duration in an environment of extremely low yields. Sponsors are looking to better manage their risk exposure and funding volatility. Dynamic de-risking is a systematic way to change asset allocation over time to meet plan objectives, by reducing unwanted investment risks as the plan approaches full funding.
This session covers:
- The theory of dynamic de-risking and cutting edge developments in this area
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P3 — Demographics Trends and Investments
Moderator: TBD
Presenter: Robert Arnott, Research Affiliates
Using a provocative analysis and evolving integrated framework, Rob Arnott, Chairman of Research Affiliates will ask and evaluate answers to the following important questions:
- How will deficits, debt and demographics affect markets?
- What forward-Looking return expectations are reasonable?
- How do we invest in the face of a "3D Hurricane"?
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Q3 — Efficient Modeling Solutions for Complex Insurance Simulations
Moderator: David Chang, Pacific Life Insurance Company
Presenters: Bruce Rosner, Ernst & Young LLP; Trevor Howes, GGY AXIS; Avi Freedman, Milliman
The insurance industry has to deal with more and more complex models with the growth of complex products, the demand by the regulators with the principles-based valuations and the desire for more robust risk management practices in volatile capital markets. What are some of the model efficiency techniques and technology solutions that are promising? What are the pros and cons of different approaches?
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E3 — Capital Regime Changes and Impacts on Asset Selection
Moderator: Jason Grosse, Allianz
Presenters: Brian Paton, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP; Greg Roemelt, Towers Watson
Volatility within financial markets worldwide has lead to changes in how capital models view specific asset classes. As a result, the attractiveness of certain asset types to insurers has been impacted. Furthermore, the implementation of Solvency II in Europe and the Solvency Modernization Initiative within the US will have additional impacts. This session will address the changes to date and how those changes have impacted what insurers think about different asset classes. The potential impacts of Solvency II and SMI going forward will also be discussed.
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4:00 - 4:15 p.m.
Refreshment Break
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4:15 - 5:30 p.m. Concurrent Sessions 4
R4 — Pensions and Institutional Asset Management from an Enterprise Perspective in an Age of Knightian Uncertainty
Moderator: Ed Martin, Dwight Asset Management
Presenter: Michael Peskin, Hudson Pilot
Addressing long term partially collateralized obligations in an Enterprise framework explored with particular emphasis on the financial management of pensions, endowments and individual retirement needs. Pension promises, retirement healthcare, individual retirement income needs, University expenditures financed through pools of assets share a great many similarities. All require savings, investment to transfer the savings into the future and distribution to meet the obligations. The obligations have vastly different sensitivities to states of the world than do the sources of financing. This massive asset/liability mismatch can be ameliorated to varying degrees through appropriate investment and benchmarks. These issues will be explored in depth for Corporate defined benefit plans with discussion of Public pensions, retirement health care, University endowments and individuals retiring with a lump sum.
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P4 — ETF Funds: Latest Developments for Risk Management and Investment
Moderator/Presenter: Allan Levin, Deutsche Bank
Presenters: Elliott Noma, Garret Asset Management; Steve Mickle, iShares
The number and variety of exchange-traded products, as well as their uses, seem to be ever expanding. This session is intended to cover developments over the last year as well as innovations related to obtaining specific regulatory treatment and market value exposure. The session will tend to focus more on Fixed Income ETFs, including a broad overview of the Fixed Income ETP universe, recent innovative products and GAAP/STAT accounting treatment from an insurance company's perspective.
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Q4 — Municipal Risks — Stresses and Opportunities
Moderator: Navin Sharma, Western Asset Management
Presenters: Matthew Fabian, Municipal Market Advisors; Naomi Richman, Moody's Investors Service
The US municipal markets, comprising both state and local governments, reflect the impacts of US policies and economic stresses, with the country's financial health underscored by the municipal markets. The municipal market has undergone major changes due to the financial crisis and the continuing US economic concerns combined with high unemployment have created significant stresses on states' government finances. Consequent impacts have called into question the survival ability of many local municipalities. Some analysts have likened the municipal stresses to sovereign risks in Europe while others issued doomsday forecasts for the municipal market. In this session, we decipher the true impacts on the municipal markets and discuss possible solutions to the vexing fiscal conditions by focusing on key stresses and risks affecting these markets, as well as consequent challenges and opportunities.
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E4 — Bond Credit Ratings — Policy, Economics and Relevance
Moderator: Tracy Labonte, CIGNA Investment Management
Presenters: Edward Toy, NAIC Capital Markets Bureau
Bond credit ratings affect markets and investing in a variety of ways, including their role in determining required capital and permitted investments for regulated financial entities, the potential impact of rating changes on market value and liquidity and their use in portfolio analytics and risk assessment. This session will explore topics such as economic and regulatory issues associated with their role in financial markets, their economic relevance across different markets, and existing and potential changes in their use by regulators resulting from events of recent years.
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5:30 p.m
Adjourn
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5:30 - 7:00 p.m.
Networking Reception
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