Selection Criteria for Top Avian Influenza Papers

• These important papers were selected to address three key questions
• Which materials will help the actuary respond to a question from senior management as to whether we are prepared if an avian pandemic strikes?
• What should an actuary read if he has only one or two hours to understand avian influenza from a personal and professional perspective?
• Does the material address insurance risk and/or enterprise risk?

Next, the articles were put into four categories: a business or enterprise risk category, historical, epidemiological, statistics and modeling, all of which are of interest to both life and health actuaries and would be of at least some level of interest to those who are involved in modeling and/or pricing. A "clinical" category was also included to ensure that sufficient background in the clinical aspects of an infectious disease is available.

• Factors considered in selecting these articles
• Authoritative–It's a reliable and respected source that considers material relevant for understanding avian influenza, its impact and perhaps, catastrophes overall.
• Definitional–The article includes useful definitions and is considered a reliable source for terminology related to influenza, pandemics and the ability to model their impact.
• Conceptual–It offers a framework and/or guidelines to shape thinking about the issue and to formulate approaches and actuarial models that can be applied to avian influenza, and perhaps, more broadly to a wide range of catastrophes.
• Accessible–The information provided by the article is useful and applicable to both actuaries and a wider range of readers.
• Soundness and completeness of research/information–If at all possible, the literature includes both empirical and consensus-based information with multiple, significant citations.
• Applicability–It includes sufficient financial, clinical and/or epidemiological information with which to develop models and assess risk.
• Timeframe–Some materials discuss influenza (or other infectious diseases) and pandemics in a historical context, while the remainder of the materials are as current as possible.
• Significance–It offers insights to the 'problem', as well as conclusions to risk and research questions.

• Search Limits:
• Years 1990–2005; 1968–1972; 1918–1920
• Humans
• English
• Major peer–reviewed journals and government documents