Overview
A new and growing field of science, Complexity Science, has begun to develop the tools and techniques necessary to model, understand and manage complex social systems. Complexity Science studies the behavior of agents—represented in the health care field by providers, consumers, health insurers and the government—by modeling the agents' behavior from the bottom up. This bottom-up modeling looks at the basic rules driving the behavior of each of the agents and how these rules interact to build a complex system. Studying the impact of changes in the agent's behavioral rules can provide new insight into the most effective ways to manage the system and to identify policy changes that will optimize the outcomes, such as, providing the greatest access to quality care at the least cost.

The Health Section recently sponsored the development of an introduction to Complexity Science for Actuaries. This paper, written by Alan Mills which provides a clear and readable introduction to complexity science, is designed to foster the application of this science to the issues of health care systems. As the debate surrounding health care reform has demonstrated, few people, if any, fully understand the U.S. health care system. As the recently announced changes in the British Health care system highlight, the U.S. is not the only country struggling with issues of quality, access and cost of their health care system. By anyone's definition of a complex social system, healthcare clearly is one!

As a next step, the Untapped Opportunities Work Group is issuing a call for models applying Complexity Science to a component of a health care system. The purpose of this document is to provide additional details regarding the call for models, including eligibility, submission guidelines and judging criteria.

Eligibility
Eligibility for cash prizes is open to the public and is not restricted solely to members of the Society of Actuaries (SOA) or the SOA Health Section. Submissions can be from individuals, groups of individuals or organizations. Employees of the SOA or other organizations that provide financial sponsorship ("Joint" or "Event" sponsors) are eligible to submit papers for the call for models and to participate in any conference, but will not be eligible to receive prize money.

Judging Panel and Criteria
The judging panel will represent SOA membership and may include outside experts from government, academia or industry who have been involved with health care systems and/or complexity science. The judging panel will be chosen after the statement of intent deadline, to minimize any potential conflicts of interest. The decisions of the judging panel are final.

The judging criteria will include the following criteria:

• How well the model represents and predicts the behavior of a specific component of the health care system
• The level of insight provided by the model to managing and optimizing relevant health care system component outcomes
• The usability and practicality of the modeling results to agents in the system and or health care policymakers
• The clarity of the documentation model, including the data used, the underlying assumptions, the model results and any implications of the results for managing the component of the health care system

Models applicable to any health care system or subset of a health care system anywhere in the world are welcomed.

Award of Prizes
The judging panel will select up to three submissions for an award of prize money:

• $6,000 for First Place
• $3,000 for Second Place
• $1,000 for Third Place

The SOA intends to award prizes regardless of the nationality or country of residence of the submission author(s), but all awards of prizes will be subject to compliance with the applicable tax laws of the United States and/or the winner's country, including any reporting or withholding obligations.

Timing
In order to be eligible for prize money, a Statement of Intent, outlining your intention to participate, along with a very brief summary of your proposed design, must be submitted to the SOA by December 31, 2010. Statements of intent should be sent to Jill Leprich, SOA Project Specialist, jleprich@soa.org or 847.706.3645.

The statement of intent should include a one-page description of the health care system to be modeled, a brief biographical paragraph for the author(s) and contact information and whether any organization is or has provided financial backing in developing the proposal. Statements of intent will be reviewed by Society of Actuaries' staff to ensure that the proposed model meets the broad goals and criteria of the call for models. Members of SOA staff will contact submitters within two weeks of receipt to confirm whether the proposed submission would be considered eligible for an award. Submitters whose statements of intent do not appear to match the goals of the call for models will be advised of this assessment. The SOA reserves the right to refuse to consider models submitted without a statement of intent.

Final Submissions
All complexity models and documentation must be submitted in a complete format no later than March 31, 2011.

Questions
Please direct questions regarding this call for models to:

Steve Siegel
Research Actuary
ph: 847.706.3578
email: ssiegel@soa.org

Sara Teppema
Staff Fellow, Health
ph: 847.706.3511
email: steppema@soa.org