In 2002 the SOA held its first Living to 100 research symposium. This project was initiated by the SOA's Committee on Life Insurance Research to investigate mortality at older ages including trends in the rates of future improvement and views on mortality projection methods. The result of the symposium was a monograph of the research papers presented to help actuaries and others:

• Develop mortality tables
• Design, price, value, and manage financial security products
• Assess the state of social insurance programs and private pension plans
• Project the resources, products and services needed for and used by an aging population
• Provide valuable information to individuals and their advisors for retirement and financial planning

Over the past ten years, this initiative has continued with the symposia taking place triennially. The last Living to 100 Symposium, the fourth in the series, occurred in January 2011. The monographs can be found on the Living to 100 website at: http://livingto100.soa.org/monographs.aspx.

The Living to 100 symposia have produced a great deal of information on the future of mortality and modeling. While a monograph has been produced after each conference, there has not been an analysis of the trends and comparison of the modeling methods in the information presented. There has also not been much follow-up to see if the models have been used, and if any successes and pitfalls have emerged in trying to use them.

The purpose of this project is to provide an overview and analysis of the mortality models and theories contained in the papers presented at the past four conferences. The knowledge from this study will assist actuaries and others in better understanding the current views and any consensus related to future mortality trends and projection methods.

The objective of this project is to perform a literature review of the mortality theories, quantification and projection methods contained in the papers presented at the Living to 100 symposiums. Using the information, the researcher will:

• Provide an overview of the information presented.
• Identify any consensus or disagreement in the views presented.
• Determine if there is any consensus or trends forming from year to year.
• Provide a comparsion of different methods.
• Comment on the applicability of the information presented to life insurance, annuities, and pensions.
• Comment on methodology used to estimate mortality at the higher ages in recent industry mortality tables and how the material presented at the Symposia might be used to enhance this methodology in the development of future mortality tables.
• Identify experiences in the use of these models (if there are any) with information about successful use, pitfalls, etc.
• The researcher is not required to but is welcome to compare the methods in the paper with methods used in actual mortality table development today.

Results will be summarized into a report to be made available to the SOA membership.

It is expected that the Researcher(s) will work closely with a Project Oversight Group (POG) in finalizing the information to be collected, the overall content, and the final report of results. The Researcher(s) will also provide the POG with periodic progress reports. Members of this group will be available to provide feedback and guidance to the Researcher(s) as needed.

To facilitate the evaluation of proposals, the following information should also be submitted:

1. Resumes of the researcher(s), including any graduate student(s) expected to participate, indicating how their background, education, and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research. If more than one researcher is involved, a single individual should be designated as the lead researcher and primary contact. The person submitting the proposal must be authorized to speak on behalf of all the researchers as well as for the firm or institution on whose behalf the proposal is submitted.
2. An outline of the approach to be used, emphasizing issues that require special consideration. Details should be given regarding the techniques to be used, collateral material to be consulted, and possible limitations of the analysis, specifically what the Researcher(s) will do with inconclusive or otherwise incomplete survey results.
3. Cost estimates for the research. We expect to reach agreement on a fixed cost for this project with the Researcher(s).
   While cost will be a factor in the evaluation of the proposal, it will not necessarily be the decisive factor.
4. A schedule for completion of the research, identifying key dates or time frames for research completion and report submissions.
5. Ideas regarding the form and distribution of the final report, both for immediate release and for permanent reference (e.g., submission to the Actuarial Practice Forum or other SOA publication).
6. Other related factors that give evidence of a proposer's capabilities to perform in a superior fashion should be detailed

The SOA's sponsoring committees are responsible for the selection of the proposal to be funded. Input from other knowledgeable individuals also may be sought, but the sponsoring committees will make the final decision. The SOA's Research Actuary will provide staff actuarial support.

Any questions regarding this RFP should be directed by fax, or e-mail to: Ronora Stryker, SOA Research Actuary (Fax: 847-273-8514; e-mail: rstryker@soa.org).

If you intend to submit a proposal, please send written notification by November 11, 2011 to:

Jan Schuh
SOA Research Administrator
f: 847.273.8556
e–mail: jschuh@soa.org

Please e-mail a copy of the proposal to:

Jan Schuh at jschuh@soa.org

Proposals must be received no later than November 18, 2011. It is anticipated that all researchers who have submitted proposals will be informed of the status of their proposal no later than December 9, 2011.

Note: Proposals are considered confidential and proprietary.

The Society of Actuaries reserves the right to not award a contract for this research. Reasons for not awarding a contract could include, but are not limited to, a lack of acceptable proposals or a finding that insufficient funds are available to proceed. The Society of Actuaries also reserves the right to redirect the project as is deemed advisable.

The Society of Actuaries intends to copyright and publish the results of this research. The research will be considered work-for-hire and all rights thereto belong to the Society of Actuaries. However, appropriate credit will be given to the Researcher(s).