Study of the Effect of a Flu Pandemic on Insured Mortality Using the Delphi Method

Spreadsheet with documentation for exhibits to the May 2007 report: The Potential Impact of Pandemic Influenza on the U.S. Life insurance Industry

Attempts to Quantify Potential Impact of Pandemic Influenza on the U.S. Life Insurance Industry

Slides from a presentation at the Society of Actuaries 2007 Annual Meeting, held in October, 2007 in Washington, D.C. Discussion of population mortality experience and forecast in the USA, Canada, and the UK. Also some comparisons of population mortality improvement to insured lives mortality improvement. Also discussion of longevity risk and the implications for pension plancs

Slides from an interactive forum at the Society of Actuaries 2010 Life & Annuity Symposium held in May 2010 in Tampa, FL Discussion includes: • Definition of a pandemic • Historical pandemics • Modeling future pandemics mortality • Source for assumptions • Pandemic as a business continuity issue • Lessons from the H1N1 pandemic

Slides from an interactive forum at the Society of Actuaries 2010 Life & Annuity Symposium held in May 2010 in Tampa, FL Discussion includes: • Definition of a pandemic • Historical pandemics • Modeling future pandemics mortality • Source for assumptions • Pandemic as a business continuity issue • Lessons from the H1N1 pandemic

This session from the 2009 9th Annual Product Develpment Actuary Symposium discusses today’s underwriting paradigm and the Individual Payout Annuity Mortality Study.

In the SOA's Factors Affecting Retirement Mortality 'FARM' research report, among the factors studied were age, education, gender, income, marital status, occupation, and race & ethnicity. This web page summarizes material from the following bibliographical source that touches on all of these factors: Effects Of Socio–Demographic Variables On Adult Mortality In The United States: Comparisons By Sex, Age, And Cause Of Death by Jeffrey Kallan, Social Biology, 44: 136–147.

This paper is concerned with mortality forecasts for the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. It first examines broad patterns in the historical decline in death rates in the three countries. Then it reviews theories of the age pattern and evolution of mortality. Next it summarizes some key historical lessons in mortality forecasting. Next, it considers mortality differentials in characteristics such as sex, marital status, education, and socioeconomic variables. Finally, it reviews methods of forecasting, including the scenario method used by the U.S. Social Security Administration and the time series method of Lee and Carter and sets out some important recommendations for forecasters.

This SOA report provides an overview and analysis of the mortality models, theories and trends contained in the papers presented at the past four international Living to 100 symposia.