The session will provide guidance for when predictive modeling tools can be effectively used and when they cannot. There will be an opportunity for the audience to ask questions. At the conclusion of the session, attendees will be able to: identify predictive modeling tools that can be used to model extreme events and determine when predictive modeling tools do and do not apply to modeling extreme events.

In this session, a savings methodology framework will be presented, including the following topics: • Structure of savings certification process • Prospective vs. retrospective measurement • How actuarial techniques contribute to the process • Complex attribution and statistical modeling done by biostatistics area • Examples of basic and more complex savings calculations • Selection bias issues and how to address them.

As providers are considering accountable and value based care models, it is critical to strategically think through how to achieve a sustainable business model into the future. This requires actuarial and clinical/provider capabilities to assess the care management and financial levers to help a client through the transition.

U.K. life insurers writing participating business are required by the Financial Services Authority to value their assets and liabilities on a market-consistent basis. The purpose of this paper is to: • Explain the valuation approach based on market-consistent values and its rationale. • Set out the issues faced by life insurers in implementing the regime. • Explain how insurers addressed these issues. • Explain the importance of the modeling techniques they used.

In this paper the authors conduct an asymptotic analysis of the exact bootstrap bias correction for the empirical Conditional Tail Expectation, focusing on its performance as a point estimator of the bias of the empirical CTE.

This study, part of the Society of Actuaries [SOA} ‘Research Projects – Finance/Investment,’ is sponsored by the SOA Futurism Section, Investment Section, Committee on Finance Research and Committee on Knowledge Extension Research. This study investigates the merits of conducting a study on economic variables utilizing the Delphi method, a futures research technique. The report consists of eight documents, the report and seven Appendices [A through G].

This paper derives limited fluctuations credibility results for the Generalized Linear Model GLM and the extended case of generalized linear mixed model GLMM. It shows how credibility depends on the sample size, the distribution of covariates, and the link function. This provides a mechanism to obtain confidence intervals for the GLM and GLMM estimators.

This paper uses a mortality surge model to estimate the total financial impact on the U.S. insurance industry of a flu pandemic. It does not attempt to determine the probability of such a pandemic.

Research report sponsored by SOA to model and compare projected costs of different proposals for a Medicare prescription drug coverage plan. 3 types of costs are studied: net benefit cost estimates per member per month, continuance table data, and projected annual costs to the government over 10 years for two selected plan designs.

2012 SOA Health Meeting Session #29. Private Exchanges are gaining in momentum – but what are they and why should you care? Private Exchanges are run by private companies and do not have to offer the regulated and standardized products found in Public Exchanges. Employers who choose to offer a Private Exchange have many things to consider when making the leap from the traditional means of offering benefits to employees. Insurers who participate in a Private Exchange also must understand the risks involved with being offered in this new medium. This panel will address the following issues: Similarities and differences between Private and Public Exchanges. Why are employers interested in offering exchanges to their employees. What does it mean for an employer to send their employees to a Private Exchange versus a Public Exchange. Forecasting and underwriting issues for actuaries helping employers who are considering migrating to Private Exchange. Risk adjustment considerations in multi-carrier exchanges