2014 Living to 100 Monograph

Table of Contents by Session

January 8-10, 2014
Walt Disney World Swan Resort
Orlando, Fla.

The Living to 100 monograph is composed of the papers, panel discussions and keynote sessions presented at the symposium.

Participating Organizations
Sponsors
Program
Presentations
Overview
Timothy F. Harris


General Session I: The Advancing Frontier of Human Survival
James Vaupel

Informal Discussion Transcript


Session 1A: Innovative Retirement Products


Optimal Retirement Tontines for the 21st Century: with Reference to Mortality Derivatives in 1693
Moshe A. Milevsky and Thomas S. Salisbury

Abstract
Complete Paper

Estimating the True Cost of Retirement
David Blanchett

Abstract
Complete Paper

The CBD Mortality Indexes: Modeling and Applications
Wai Sum-Chan, Johnny Siu-Hang Li, and Jackie Li

Abstract
Complete Paper

Discussant Comments
Kai Kaufhold

Informal Discussion Transcript


1B: Happily Ever After, Marriage and Old Age Mortality


Mortality, Health and Marriage: A Study Based on Taiwan’s Population Data
Hsin Chung Wang and Jack C. Yue

Abstract
Complete Paper

Spousal Concordance in Exceptional Longevity: The Interplay between Early Life, Marriage and Survival
Valérie Jarry, Alain Gagnon, Robert Bourbeau

Which Socio-Demographic Living Arrangement Helps to Reach 100?
Michael Poulain and Anne Herm

Discussant Comments
Jean-Marc Fix

Informal Discussion Transcript


1C: Panel: Perspectives and Implications to Stakeholders of Increasing Longevity


Moderator
Timothy F. Harris

Panelists
Robert L. Brown, Jennifer A. Haid, Sally Hass, Sandra Timmermann

Transcript


2A: From Population to Insured Lives, Finding Longevity Drivers


Logistic Regression for Insured Mortality Experience Studies
Zhiwei Zhu and Zhi Li

Abstract
Complete Paper

Predictors of Exceptional Longevity: Effects of Early-Life Childhood Conditions, Mid-Life Environment and Parental Characteristics
Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova

Abstract
Complete Paper

Liars, Cheaters and Procrastinators: How They Upset Mortality Studies
R.C.W. “Bob” Howard

Abstract
Complete Paper

Discussant Comments
Tom Edwalds

Informal Discussion Transcript


2B: Behavior and Causes of Death: Impact on Mortality and Mortality Modeling


Obesity and Mortality
Sam Gutterman

Abstract
Complete Paper

Causes-of-Death Mortality: What Do We Know on Their Dependence?
Séverine Arnold (-Gaille) and Michael Sherris

Abstract
Complete Paper

Mortality of Smoking by Gender
Sam Gutterman

Abstract
Complete Paper

Discussant Comments
S. Jay Olshansky

Informal Discussion Transcript


2C: Panel: Developing a Winning Strategy to Address the Good, the Bad and the Wrinkled of Our Aging Workforce


Moderator
Anna M. Rappaport

Panelists
Donald Fuerst, Sally Hass, Haig Nalbantian

Informal Discussion Transcript


General Session II—Panel: Innovative Business Solutions to Respond to the Aging Society


Moderator
Anna Rappaport

Panelists
Cindy Hounsell, Tim Driver, Nigel Nunoo

Informal Discussion Transcript


General Session III—Learning from Genetics


Genetically Informed Longevity
Tom Bakos, Marc Klibanow, Nicholas Schork, Ali Torkamani, and Ashley Van Zeeland

Abstract
Complete Paper

How Genes Modulate Patterns of Aging-Related Changes on the Way to 100: Lessons from Biodemographic Analyses of Longitudinal Data
Anatoliy I. Yashin, Konstantin G. Arbeev, Deqing Wu, Alexander Kulminski, Liubov Arbeeva, Irina Kulminskaya, Igor Akushevich, and Svetlana V. Ukraintseva

Abstract
Complete Paper

Contribution of Familial Longevity to Living to 100
Paola Sebastiani, Stacy L. Andersen, Avery I. McIntosh, Lisa Nussbaum, Meredith D. Stevenson, Leslie Pierce, Samantha Xia, Kelly Salance, and Thomas T. Perls

Abstract
Complete Paper

Discussant Comments
Leonard Hayflick

Author's Reply
Tom Bakos

Informal Discussant Transcript


3A: Mortality Age Patterns: Trends and Projections


Coherent Projections of Age, Period and Cohort Dependent Mortality Improvements
Matthias Börger and Marie-Christine Aleksic

Abstract
Complete Paper

Measurement of Mortality among Centenarians in Canada
Nadine Ouellette and Robert Bourbeau

Abstract
Complete Paper

Mortality Trajectories at Extreme Old Ages: A Comparative Study of Different Data Sources on U.S. Old-Age Mortality
Natalia S. Gavrilova and Leonid A. Gavrilov

Abstract
Complete Paper

Discussant Comments
Johnny Siu-Hang Li

Informal Discussion Transcript


3B: Societal Changes and Adaptations as a Result of Longer Life Spans


How Well Have Retirement Systems Adapted to Longer Life?
Anna M. Rappaport
Abstract
Complete Paper

Mapping the Adequacy of Care and Support for the Elderly in Developed Countries
Doug Andrews
Abstract
Complete Paper

Supporting the Oldest Old: The Role of Social Insurance, Pensions and Financial Products
Jonathan Barry Forman
Abstract
Complete Paper

Discussant Comments
Robert Brown

Informal Discussion Transcript


3C: Panel: Data Sources and Projection Methods for Successfully Supporting the Needs of the Senior Market


Moderator
Jean-Marc Fix

Panelists
Louis Adam, W. Ward Kingkade, Jean-Marie Robine

Informal Discussion Transcript


4A: The Changing Age Distribution of Deaths


A Study of Measuring the Mortality Compression
Jack C. Yue
Abstract
Complete Paper

Modal Age at Death: Mortality Trends in England and Wales 1841–2010
Emily Clay
Abstract
Complete Paper

Compression of Morbidity and Mortality: New Perspectives
Eric Stallard
Abstract
Complete Paper


Discussant Comments

Jean-Marie Robine


4B: Longevity and Lifestyle


Living To 100: Socioeconomic Implications of Increased Longevity
Rick Gorvett
Abstract
Complete Paper

Perspectives on SOA Post-Retirement Risk Research and What It Tells About Implications of Long Life
Anna M. Rappaport
Abstract
Complete Paper

Subjective Survival Probabilities and Life Tables: Evidence from Europe
Franco Peracchi and Valeria Perotti
Abstract
Complete Paper

Discussant Comments
Arnold Dicke

Informal Discussion Transcript


4C: Panel: Proactive Strategies for Managing Long-Term Care Needs in Retirement


Moderator
John W. Paddon

Panelists
John Cutler, Steve Schoonveld, Sandra Timmermann

Transcript


General Session IV: Could Moses Live to Be 120?
Nir Barzilai

Informal Discussion Transcript


General Session V: Mortality Projection from a Social Security Perspective


Panel

Moderator
Sam Gutterman

Panelists
Adrian Gallop, Stephen Goss and Jean-Claude Menard

Transcript

Mortality Projections for Social Security Programs in Canada
Office of the Chief Actuary
Abstract
Complete Paper

Informal Discussion Transcript


5A: Aging and Changes in Health Status


Survival Characteristics of Three Senior Populations, with a Focus on Life Settlements
Vincent J. Granieri and Gregory P. Heck
Abstract
Complete Paper

Modeling Medical Cost Trends for Advancing Age in the Long Run
Thomas E. Getzen
Abstract
Complete Paper

Sex Differences in Predictors of Health Decline: Results from a 16-Year Longitudinal Cohort Study
Steven G. Prus
Abstract
Complete Paper

Discussant Comments
Eric Stallard

Informal Discussion Transcript


5B: Longevity and Cognitive Impairment


Cognitive, Psychological and Social Drivers of Longevity
Gordon Woo and Anne Bruce

Abstract
Complete Paper

Is Secondary Prevention of Alzheimer’s Disease Possible? A Discussion of Studies in the Alzheimer’s Disease Field
Heather M. Snyder, Dean Hartley, Keith N. Fargo and Maria C. Carrillo
Abstract
Complete Paper

Discussant Comments
Jay Olshansky

Discussant Comments
Robert Pokorski

Informal Discussion Transcript


5C: Panel: Leaving Worries Behind: Risk Management Strategies for Individuals to Address the Economic Issues Related to Increased Longevity


Moderator
Arnold Dicke

Panelists
Christine Fahlund, Joseph E. Montminy, Robert A. Painter, William Silbert, Harrison C. Weaver

Informal Discussion Transcript


General Session VI


Regenerative Medicine: New Approaches to Health Care
Anthony Atala, M.D