Living to 100 and Beyond Symposium
January 12-14, 2005
The Hilton Hotel, Walt Disney World Resort
Lake Buena Vista, FL
Sponsors and Participating Organizations | Program
Download single PDF of all papers
Foreword
Robert J. Johansen
Session 1: Increased Longevity and the Challenge of Determining qx at Extreme Ages - Part 1
Ending the Mortality Table
Abstract | Complete paper
Edwin C. Hustead
Analysis of Trends in the Age-Specific Shape of Mortality Curves for Populations in the United States and Japan
Abstract | Complete paper
Christine Dugan, Hande Gulumser, Richard Humble, Daniel Ryan
Discussant comments: Allen M. Klein
Informal discussion transcript

Session 2: Impact of Aging Populations - Part 1
The Effects of Advanced Age Mortality Improvements on the Valuation of Variable Annuities with Guaranteed Death Benefits
Abstract | Complete paper
Lijia Guo
The Impact of the Equity Risk Premium and Population Aging on the Canadian Retirement Savings System
Abstract | Complete paper
Doug Andrews
An Investigation of Select Birth Cohorts
Abstract | Complete paper
Richard MacMinn, Krzysztof Ostaszewski, Ranee Thiagarajah, Frederik Weber
Discussant comments: J. Bruce MacDonald
Informal discussion transcript
Session 3: Theories of Longevity
The Great Debate on the Outlook for Human Longevity: Exposition and Critical Evaluation of Two Divergent Views
Abstract | Complete paper
Jacob S. Siegel
Search for Predictors of Exceptional Human Longevity: Using Computerized Genealogies and Internet Resources for Human Longevity Studies
Abstract | Complete paper
Natalia S. Gavrilova, Leonid A. Gavrilov
Trajectories of Disability and Mortality Among the U.S. Elderly Population: Evidence From the 1984-1999 NLTCS
Abstract | Complete paper
P.J. Eric Stallard
The Interdependency of Increasing Life Expectancy and Driving Life Expectancy of Elderly Populations
Abstract | Complete paper
Chao-Chun (Vickie) Leng, Min-Ming Wen
Discussant comments: S. Jay Olshansky
Discussant comments: Robert K. Gleeson
Informal discussion transcript
Session 4: Increased Longevity and the Challenge of Determining qx at Extreme Ages - Part 2
Mortality at Advanced Ages in the United Kingdom
Abstract | Complete paper
Adrian Gallop, Angus S. Macdonald
Coping with Longevity—The New German Annuity Valuation Table DAV 2004 R
Abstract | Complete paper
Ulrich Pasdika, Jürgen Wolff
Discussant comments: Thomas Buettner
Informal discussion transcript
Session 5: Impact of Aging Populations - Part 2
Implications of an Aging Population in India: Challenges and Opportunities
Abstract | Complete paper
Prakash Bhattacharya
Shapes and Limits of Longevity in Mexico
Abstract | Complete paper
Roberto Ham-Chande

What if Mortality Was to Diminish Much More than Was Forecast? Implications for Financing Social Security
Abstract | Complete paper
Robert Bourbeau, Bertrand Desjardins, Jacques Légaré
High-Age Implications of Postretirement Risks
Abstract | Complete paper
Anna M. Rappaport, Monica Dragut
Discussant comments: John W. Paddon
Informal discussion transcript
Session 6: Data Sources, Quality and Analyses
IDL, the International Database on Longevity
Abstract | Complete paper
Jean-Marie Robine, Amandine Cournil, Jutta Gampe, James W. Vaupel
Number of Centenarians in the United States Jan. 1, 1990, Jan. 1, 2000, and Jan. 1, 2010, Based on Improved Medicare Data
Abstract | Complete paper
Bertram M. Kestenbaum, B. Reneé Ferguson
Seasons and Longevity: Mortality Trajectories Among the Oldest Old
Abstract | Complete paper
Jean-Marie Robine, Siu Lan K Cheung, Fred Paccaud
Data Quality of Oldest-Old Population in Taiwan: 2003 Census for Ages 89 and Above
Abstract | Complete paper
Ching –Syang Jack Yue (Jack C. Yue)
Discussant comments: Thomas N. Herzog
Discussant comments: Leonid A. Gavrilov
Informal discussion transcript
Session 7: Mortality "Laws" and Models - Part 1
“Makeham-Type” Mortality Models
Abstract | Complete paper
Marie Redina L. Mumpar-Victoria, Augusto Y. Hermosilla, Ronnie M. Mirandilla
Extreme Value Analysis of Advanced Age Mortality Data
Abstract | Complete paper | Charts and Tables
Kathryn A. Robertson, Debbie J. Dupuis, Bruce L. Jones
Living to 100 and Beyond: An Extreme Value Study
Abstract | Complete paper
Zhongxian (Jerry) Han
Discussant comments: Thomas P. Edwalds
Informal discussion transcript
Session 8: Mortality “Laws” and Models—Part 2
The Lee-Carter Model for Forecasting Mortality Revisited
Abstract | Complete paper
Siu-hang Li, Wai-sum Chan
Application of Mortality Models to Japan
Abstract | Complete paper
Masakazu Ozeki
Discussant comments: Robert L. Brown
Informal discussion transcript

Group Luncheon Presentation: The Evolving Elderly Population of the United States
Abstract | Complete paper
W. Ward Kingkade

Panel Discussion: Implications of Increasing Life Spans for the Private Sector
Complete paper
Steven C. Siegel