Bayesian Estimation Webcast


August 23, 2017

  • Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
  • Results-Oriented Solutions


Event Home | Presenter & Moderator | CPD


Presented by

Predictive Analytics & Futurism Section

Who Should Participate

All professionals who are looking to improve how their organizations drive decision making with analytics. This webinar is intended to introduce state of the art modeling tools to help these professionals influence the future direction of their organizations.


Bayesian statistical approaches can offer a lot of flexibility to current actuarial problems. However, actually implementing advanced Bayesian techniques, such as the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, can be intimidating. This webcast will introduce practical Bayesian techniques, discuss best practices when using them, as well as cover healthcare provider performance analysis case study.

Brian Hartman, ASA, Ph.D. is an assistant professor of statistics and director of the actuarial program at Brigham Young University. His current research interests include Bayesian methods and their applications in actuarial science and risk. Hartman will present first and focus on giving a basic understanding of Bayesian methods. He will also explain the types of actuarial problems that can benefit from their application.

Shea Parkes, FSA, MAAA, is a principal with the Indianapolis office of Milliman. Parkes has focused heavily on statistical analytics and product development during his time with Milliman. He will present second and focus on a case study that applies Bayesian methods to healthcare provider performance. Because healthcare data provides an incomplete clinical perspective, it is important to reflect uncertainty in any results. Bayesian methods can help do this appropriately. Parkes will finish with a unique application of Bayesian posterior outputs involving equitable distribution of savings in an Accountable Care Organization (ACO) arrangement.

How the live webcast works and what it includes

You do not need any special equipment. On August 22, 2017, before 2:00 p.m. ET you will be sent detailed webcast instructions via email including the Web address for accessing the presentation. Any handouts that are available will also be sent. You will follow along with both the slide presentation and the audio portion of the broadcast over the Internet.

The registration fee includes:

  • One access code to the live webcast;
  • One Internet connection;
  • One phone connection (to be used only if experiencing sound issues or if in a conference room with a group);
  • One set of presentation materials; and
  • Access to the subsequent webcast recording.

Please note that each access code may only be used for one location , even if you register for more than one participant.

Post-Webcast Purchase Opportunity

For those who are interested in SOA webcasts but are unable to participate in the live event, access to an archived recording of the webcast will be available for purchase approximately 10 business days following the event by using the following link .




Demonstrating the listening, writing and speaking skills required to effectively address diverse technical and nontechnical audiences in both formal and informal settings.

Professional Values

Adhering to standards of professional conduct and practice where all business interactions are based on a foundation of integrity, honesty and impartiality.

External Forces & Industry Knowledge

Identifying and incorporating the implications of economic, social, regulatory, geo-political and business changes into the design and delivery of actuarial solutions.


Initiating, innovating, inspiring, creating or otherwise acting to influence others regardless of level or role toward a common goal.

Relationship Management & Interpersonal Collaboration

Creating mutually beneficial relationships and work processes toward a common goal.

Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving

Applying the actuarial knowledge, skills and judgment required to provide value-added services.

Strategic Insight & Integration

Anticipating trends and strategically aligning actuarial practice with broader organizational business goals.

Results-Oriented Solutions

Providing effective problem solving that addresses relevant interests and needs.