Agenda Day Two
Friday, October 5 |
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6:45 a.m. – 7:30 a.m.
Session Coordinator(s) Facilitator(s) |
7:30 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.
Presenter(s): Ian Duncan, FSA, CSPA, FCA, FCIA, FIA, MAAA ; Nhan Huynh, MS Survival models tend to be studied for exam purposes but are not used much by health care actuaries. Yet they are powerful techniques with many applications. In this case study we will apply survival model techniques to a problem. To legally self-insure in California, employers must comply with the reserving policy of the CA Office of self-insured plans. The reserving methodology for future medical benefits is: average of last three years of payments x life expectancy, where life expectancy is determined according to the 2011 Unites States Life Tables. Our hypothesis is that the United States Life Tables over-state disabled work comp claimant survival. We will:
Workers Comp. survival data; R code. Session Coordinator(s) Facilitator(s) |
9:00 a.m. – 9:30 a.m.
Session Coordinator(s) Facilitator(s) |
9:30 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.
Presenter(s): Sreenivas (Si) Konda, Ph.D Time Series: Brief introduction, Trends, Seasonality, Forecasting, Model building. Example: Google flu time series data to forecast flu outbreaks. R code Relevant articles (including problems with Google’s first model) Flu database Per capita cost data Session Coordinator(s) Facilitator(s) |
11:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.
Session Coordinator(s) Facilitator(s) |
12:00 p.m. – 2:30 p.m.
Presenter(s): Sreenivas (Si) Konda, Ph.D
BMI Exercise data; Medical cost data. R code Session Coordinator(s) Facilitator(s) |
2:30 p.m. – 2:30 p.m.
Session Coordinator(s) Facilitator(s) |