Predictive Analytics

Podcast

    Artificial Neural Networks

    August 23, 2017

    Length: 20:56

    Sponsor: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section

    Description:

    Listen in as Anders Larson, FSA, MAAA, interviews Shea Parkes, FSA, MAAA, and Michael Niemerg, FSA, MAAA, about artificial neural networks. Artificial neural networks have gone through a recent renaissance as part of deep learning. Artificial neural networks can now provide amazing accuracy, but they come with an equally amazing amount of complexity. This podcast provides a very high-level overview of everything from their history to modern implementations.

    To open podcast in a new window, click here.

    Gradient Boosting Machines

    July 19, 2017

    Length: 19:10

    Sponsor: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section

    Description:

    Listen in as Anders Larson, FSA, MAAA, interviews Shea Parkes, FSA, MAAA about Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs). Although GBMs share many characteristics with Random Forests, they can often provide better performance at the cost of somewhat higher complexity. This discussion covers topics including underlying theory, tuning hyperparameters and modern implementations.

    To open podcast in a new window, click here .

    Kaggle – How to do well?

    June 28, 2017

    Length: 22:14

    Sponsor: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section

    Description:

    Listen in as Anders Larson, FSA, MAAA, interviews Shea Parkes, FSA, MAAA about how to do well at Kaggle. In the last episode they explored what Kaggle is and what makes up the various predictive modeling contests they host. In this episode, Shea shares some tips and general advice on how to perform well in a given Kaggle contest.

    To open podcast in a new window, click here .

    Kaggle- What Is It? Why Should You Care?

    June 28, 2017

    Length: 15:05

    Sponsor: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section

    Description:

    Listen in as Anders Larson, FSA, MAAA, interviews Shea Parkes, FSA, MAAA about Kaggle. Kaggle is an online community that brings together data scientists from across the globe to participate in predictive modeling contests.

    To open podcast in a new window, click here .

    Predictive Analytics Case Study – Growing Your Company’s Capabilities

    February 22, 2017

    Length: 16:11

    Sponsor: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section

    Description:

    Listen in as Shea Parkes, FSA, MAAA interviews Timothy Paris, FSA, MAAA and Steve Wright, FSA, MAAA from Ruark Consulting.  Tim and Steve have developed predictive analytics expertise at their company over the last few years.  They share stories from that journey and some suggested resources for others wanting to do the same.

    To open podcast in a new window, click here .

    Random Forests (Improved Audio!)

    February 22, 2017

    Length: 19:46

    Sponsor: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section

    Description:

    Listen in as Anders Larson, FSA, MAAA, interviews Shea Parkes, FSA, MAAA about Random Forests. Random Forests are a very important machine learning algorithm that all practitioners should be very comfortable with. They provide great performance with minimal tuning and headache. As a bonus, this session features what is hopefully much improved audio.

    To open podcast in a new window, click here .

    Ensemble Predictive Modeling

    November 22, 2016

    Length: 27:56

    Sponsor: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section

    Description:

    Listen in as Anders Larson, FSA, MAAA, interviews Shea Parkes, FSA, MAAA about ensemble predictive modeling. The most accurate predictive models are not any single predictive model; they are ensembles of different models. This discussion explores what types of ensembles are common, and some of the theory that explains their surprising power. Understanding some of this theory can help you identify problems or individual models that might benefit most from ensembling.

    To open podcast in a new window, click here .

    Decision Trees

    October 18, 2016

    Length: 25:06

    Sponsor: Predictive Analytics And Futurism Section

    Description:

    Listen in as Anders Larson, FSA, MAAA, interviews Shea Parkes, FSA, MAAA about decision trees.  Decision trees are an important class of predictive models that are not often covered in traditional statistics classes.  Although it is becoming more rare to use a single decision tree, they are an important building block in at least two of the most prevalent ensemble learning methods in use today.  This discussion tries to lay the groundwork so the next sessions can focus on RandomForests and Gradient Boosting Machines.

    To open podcast in a new window, click here .

    Penalized Regression

    August 11, 2016

    Length: 16:00

    Sponsor: Predictive Analytics And Futurism Section

    Description:

    Listen in as Anders Larson, FSA, MAAA, interviews Shea Parkes, FSA, MAAA, and Michael Niemerg, FSA, MAAA, about penalized regression.  Penalized regression can be thought of as the result of applying actuarial credibility to linear modeling.  They explain the statistical theory behind it and the practical reasons an actuary might apply it.  They also touch on some useful implementations that are freely available as open source libraries for R and Python.

    To open podcast in a new window, click here .

     

    Predictive Modeling Case Study – Life Insurance Underwriting

    August 04, 2016

    Length: 14:45

    Sponsor: Predictive Analytics And Futurism Section

    Description:

    Listen in as Shea Parkes, FSA, MAAA, from Milliman interviews Vince Granieri, FSA, MAAA, EA from Predictive Resources. Vince presents a case study of applying predictive analytics to a classical actuarial problem: life insurance underwriting. Vince walks us through building up his team, his capabilities and his models to provide more useful solutions with predictive analytics.

    To open podcast in a new window, click here .

     

     

    Cross Validation and Bootstrapping

    May 12, 2016

    Length: 24:09

    Sponsor: Predictive Analytics And Futurism Section

    Description:

    Cross Validation and Bootstrapping are two important resampling techniques that aid in training predictive models.  This episode focuses on how to use these techniques to train models that generalize well to new data.

    To open podcast in a new window, click here .

     

     

    Moving to Predictive Modeling

    April 13, 2016

    Length: 13:33

    Sponsor: Marketing And Distribution Section

    Description:

    How can you and your company be successful in the predictive analytics space? This podcast dives into an actuary's experience with making a move into a predictive analytics role within the marketing domain, and shares insights into how companies are building successful analytics programs.

    To open podcast in a new window, click here .

     

     

    Producing Actionable Insights from Predictive Models

    March 25, 2016

    Length: 13:13

    Sponsor: Health Section

    Description:

    Dave Dillon, FSA, MAAA interviews Shea Parkes FSA, MAAA about his recent article on predictive modeling with electronic medical record data.  They discuss topics such as the usefulness of electronic medical records in analytics and the visualization tools used to produce the images in the article.

    To open podcast in a new window, click here .

     

     

    Bias-variance Tradeoff

    March 04, 2016

    Length: 12:21

    Sponsor: Predictive Analytics And Futurism Section

    Description:

    The bias-variance tradeoff is a fundamental part of machine learning. In this episode we explore the concepts behind it, and how it relates closely to actuarial credibility .  

    To open podcast in a new window, click here .

     

     

    What is Machine Learning?

    January 20, 2016

    Length: 20:40

    Sponsor: Predictive Analytics And Futurism Section

    Description:

    This podcast introduces Machine Learning to actuaries by comparing and contrasting with concepts they are more familiar with. It also explores who might benefit most from learning what aspects of Machine Learning.

    To open podcast in a new window, click here .

     

     

    Predicting Emergency Room Frequent Flyers

    June 19, 2015

    Length: 13:05

    Sponsor: Research

    Description:

    Pat Kinney and Joe Randazzo discuss how predictive modeling and analytics can be applied in the Emergency Room setting. They summarize their research findings, which is part of the SOA's predictive analytics essay collection. Download the collection by visiting "Research and Publications" on SOA.org, under the "Essays" tab.


     

     

    Lapse Modeling for the Post-Level Period, A Practical Application of Predictive Modeling

    June 02, 2015

    Length: 11:04

    Sponsor: Financial Reporting Section

    Description:

    In this podcast, Scott Rushing, Derek Kueker and Richard Xu of RGA discuss their SOA research paper "Lapse Modeling for the Post-Level Period, A Practical Application of Predictive Modeling" which was published in January 2015. The paper was written in response to an SOA solicitation for a research paper illustrating an application of predictive modeling to life insurance. For their paper, the RGA team focused on the use of predictive modeling to analyze the post-level period for 10-year level term insurance and lapses in a multivariate setting. This informative podcast summarizes the advantages of using predictive modeling techniques over traditional actuarial methods and the motivation for writing the paper.
     

    To open podcast in a new browser, click here.  

     

    Back

    Legend

    Communication

    Demonstrating the listening, writing and speaking skills required to effectively address diverse technical and nontechnical audiences in both formal and informal settings.

    Professional Values

    Adhering to standards of professional conduct and practice where all business interactions are based on a foundation of integrity, honesty and impartiality.

    External Forces & Industry Knowledge

    Identifying and incorporating the implications of economic, social, regulatory, geo-political and business changes into the design and delivery of actuarial solutions.

    Leadership

    Initiating, innovating, inspiring, creating or otherwise acting to influence others regardless of level or role toward a common goal.

    Relationship Management & Interpersonal Collaboration

    Creating mutually beneficial relationships and work processes toward a common goal.

    Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving

    Applying the actuarial knowledge, skills and judgment required to provide value-added services.

    Strategic Insight & Integration

    Anticipating trends and strategically aligning actuarial practice with broader organizational business goals.

    Results-Oriented Solutions

    Providing effective problem solving that addresses relevant interests and needs.