2025 SOA ImpACT Conference:Session 4A: Scenario Modeling for Longevity Risk: Bringing the Future to Life-11.04.25 Recording

Longevity is the biggest demographic risk facing pension plans, Pension Risk Transfer insurers, and other longevity stakeholders such as reinsurers, but how can we best understand and evaluate this risk? Scenario modeling provides actuaries with a powerful technique for understanding the potential impact of a wide range of future events that will impact longevity, allowing explorations beyond the confines and constraints of purely data-driven analysis. By constructing coherent, plausible sets of future events to help describe how conditions may change in the future, scenarios provide a way for all stakeholders to better understand the nature of longevity risk and their exposure to uncertainty over future longevity outcomes. Join RGA and Club Vita for a session exploring this important topic. We'll discuss methods for creating meaningful longevity scenarios and how to measure their impact on pension plan or insurer liabilities. We'll also showcase some examples to illustrate how longevity scenarios can help understand the potential impact of current hot topics in mortality, such as climate change, GLP-1 weight loss drugs, cures for cancer or advances in anti-aging technology. Attendees will learn how scenario modeling can be applied to longevity risk, how to construct longevity scenarios and examples of impactful scenarios.