When Black Swans Aren’t: Holistically Training Management to Better Recognize, Assess, and Respond to Extreme Events

The Reinsurance and Joint Risk Management Sections and the Committee on Life Insurance Research are pleased to announce the release of a new report to help financial and insurance practitioners better recognize, assess and respond to large-scale, large impact rare events (LSLIREs). Authored by Guntram Werther of Temple University, with the assistance of Thomas Herget, this paper provides a holistic framework for foreseeing LSLIREs. Among the topics covered in the report include the definition of a black swan vs. LSLIRE; why current recognition methods for these extreme events fail; potential solutions for better foreseeing emerging LSLIREs; and how to improve timing and recognition of the trigger points within an LSLIRE.

The sponsors would like to thank the following individuals who served on the Project Oversight Group:

  • Tom Edwalds – Chair
  • Steven Craighead
  • Stephen Manly
  • Max Rudolph
  • H. Michael Shumrak
  • Achille Sime-Lanang
  • Ronora Stryker, SOA Research Actuary
  • Jan Schuh, SOA Sr. Research Administrator