Quantifying Mortality and Morbidity Impacts from Climate Risks: A Practical Framework for Decision-Making

Overview

The research report provides a forward-looking framework on climate-related life and health risk. It maps the complex transmission channels of extreme weather events and climate-related perils. And it includes a case study for heat-related mortality.  By adopting forward-looking scenarios, actuaries can better support decision-making and contribute to a more resilient financial system and society in the face of a changing climate.

Key Findings

This research proposes using forward-looking, scenario-based actuarial models that incorporate climate-related drivers into mortality and morbidity assumptions. The proposed framework provide a practical structure for translating climate hazards, geographic exposure, and population vulnerability into actuarial projections. For actuarial practice, the results are generally interpreted as conditional scenario outputs.

Research insights include:

• Insurers could benefit from incorporating climate-related mortality and morbidity considerations into their governance and risk assessments, including where data limitations require simplified or reduced-form models.
• Closing data gaps and strengthening interdisciplinary collaboration are helpful.
• The societal dimension of risk reduction warrants acknowledgment.
• Projection results are supported by sensitivity testing, alternative scenario views, and clear disclosure of uncertainty, limitations, and model judgment.
• Model outputs are intended to be reviewed alongside the underlying climate metrics, calibrated sensitivity parameters, residual diagnostics, external scientific evidence, and reasonableness checks before being used in business decisions.

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Acknowledgements

The researchers’ deepest gratitude goes to those without whose efforts this project could not have come to fruition: the Project Oversight Group and others for their diligent work overseeing questionnaire development, analyzing and discussing respondent answers, and reviewing and editing this report for accuracy and relevance.

Project Oversight Group members:

Joan Barrett. FSA, MAAA

Jean-Marc Fix, FSA, MAAA

Sam Gutterman, FSA, CERA, MAAA, FCAS, FCA, HonFIA

Xinyi (Cindy) Hu, ASA, MAAA

Soham Kupale, AIA C. Act, SCR

Ceall O’Dunlaing, FSAI

King Yin Pang, FSA, CERA

Priya Rohatgi, ASA

Aadit Sheth, FSA, CERA, FCIA

Special thanks to: 

Anani A. Olympio, Ph.D., Actuaire certifié Institut des Actuaires, CERA

Etienne Raynal, Laboratoire SAF, Université Claude Bernard, Lyon, France

 

At the Society of Actuaries Research Institute:

Rob Montgomery, ASA, MAAA, FLMI, Consultant-Research Project Manager

Barbara Scott, Senior Research Administrator