Summary
This quarterly report tracks U.S. mortality trends through March 2026 using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Human Mortality Database. Consistent with recent trends, mortality improvement continued for the aggregate U.S. population and for each age group in this analysis.
Key Findings
- The age-standardized U.S. death rate declined 1.9% between the rolling 12-month periods ending December 2025 and March 2026, from 804.0 to 788.9 deaths per 100,000.
- Mortality in Q1 2026 was 7% lower than in Q1 2025, driving the decline in the rolling 12-month death rate.
- All age groups (0-19, 20-49, 50-59, and 60+) experienced lower mortality than the same quarter a year earlier.
- Adults aged 50-59 saw the largest quarterly improvement, with an 8.4% decline in mortality.
- The annualized mortality improvement rate increased from 1.8% to 4.0%, although historical data suggest similar swings are part of normal cyclical patterns.
- Updated Human Mortality Database population estimates slightly increased measured mortality improvement, particularly for the 80+ population.
Acknowledgements
The SOA would like to thank the members of the Quarterly Mortality Monitoring Oversight Group for their support, guidance, direction, and feedback throughout the project:
- Sam Gutterman, FSA, MAAA, FCAS, FCA, HONFIA, CERA
- Tom Kukla, FSA, MAAA
- Larry Stern, FSA, MAAA
At the SOA:
- Kara Clark, FSA, Senior Research Actuary
- Barbara Scott, Senior Research Administrator
- Patrick Wiese, ASA, Modeling Researcher
FAQ
The report finds that U.S. age-standardized mortality continued to improve through March 2026, with the rolling 12-month death rate falling 1.9% and every major age group experiencing lower mortality than a year earlier.
Adults ages 50-59 showed the largest improvement, with an 8.4% reduction in mortality during the first quarter of 2026 compared with Q1 2025.
The report incorporates updated Human Mortality Database population estimates based on newer Census data, producing modest revisions and slightly stronger estimates of recent mortality improvement, especially for adults ages 80 and older.