Description: Discussion on modeling Medicare Supplement insurance and the considerations when choosing an Actuarial Modeling Software (AMS). Focuses on model risk management, key modeling assumptions and inputs, and the complex interactions between modeling assumptions and why its critical to have a model that can handle that complexity. This article also touches on the incorporation the of accounting and regulatory regimes into the model, including Statutory, GAAP (Legacy and LDTI), and Tax regimes, and the modeling considerations for sensitivity testing and capital planning. Lastly, the article highlights the capabilities to look for when choosing an AMS for Medicare Supplement

Description: "Can you answer the question 'what are the chances we will lose more than $1 million next year?' without saying 'it depends'? If you miss a projection, can you quantify the chances that the miss was due to random variation vs. an incorrect projection? ten in as presenters demonstrate how to answer these questions and others using total risk analysis. Total risk analysis includes quantifying both the random variation risk and the projection risk associated with actuarial functions like pricing and reserving. After attending this session, you will be able to describe total risk analysis, apply total risk analysis to many actuarial functions."

Description: Open source programming languages have become a common part of the actuarial toolkit over the years. Using tools like R and Python, highly technical actuaries can automate onerous processes, easily work with massive amounts of data, create models and generate reports. Although these tools excel at turbo-charging analysts, it can be difficult for benefits to inure to the rest of the organization given the learning curve (“Can’t you just put this in Excel?”), control risks (“So your entire process could break overnight if some random person in Nebraska changes something?”), and internal IT environments. Listen in on a panel discussion where presenters share their personal stories of working with open source in a production setting. Hear about real world business problems, how open source tools were used, what risks were present, how they were overcome and the final business result.

Description: Economic Scenario Generator - Investment Section Web Series - Risk Neutral

Description: Learn more about the predictive modeling that was applied to industry data for the lapse and mortality experience in the post-level term period. Novel approaches were taken to model the shock lapse, subsequent lapse, and mortality experience. Observe a demonstration of the Tableau tool, which was built to allow users to analyze data on their own.

Description: Following her first 100 days as the CMS Administrator, Chiquita Brooks-LaSure released her six strategic pillars for the agency. The Center for Medicaid and CHIP Services (CMCS) followed these pillars and laid out their priorities for states under the Biden-Harris administration. With these priorities established, recent 1115 submissions from several large states, including California, Massachusetts and New Jersey, may give insight to how CMS will operationalize their vision under this program authority. This session will include presentation from state policy staff who have led recent 1115 waiver proposals.

Description: An economic value model is used by the National Hockey League NHL to allocate salary budgets between players using a method based principally on salary comparison between players with similar statistics.

Description: Article about entries to the Speculative Fiction Contest and the winning entry for the Speculative Fiction and Futurism section prize.

Description: As the use of predictive models and novel datasets becomes more prevalent, a focus on consumer protection is being highlighted by regulators, ethicists, and industry insiders. Over time, increased rigor should and will be applied in model development and implementation. These issues are not new. Hundreds of individuals have worked on these issues in the laboratory, the board room, and the court room. The Civil Rights Act of 1964, Uniform Guidelines of the US EEOC, the Principles for the Validation and Use of Personnel Selection and other sources are intended to protect the rights of citizens and consumers and provide guidance to professionals in the development and use of decision-making tools. Drawing heavily on examples and parallels from psychology and employment practices as well as other disciplines, concepts such as model bias, fairness, adverse impact, disparate treatment and the like will be presented. Suggestions to ensure model validity, demonstrate model and data relevancy and minimize the potential for adverse impact to protected classes will also be offered. Each of these considerations will be linked to recent dialogue and concerns in the Life Insurance sector.

Description: Following up on recent articles on claim reserves and retrospective testing, this article examines some data quality and methodology issues related to calculating LTCI claim reserves.