Description: Explores the open vs. closed systems debate with regards to actuarial modeling and exposes the over-simplification. Valuable for anyone who uses models.

Description: Summary of all issue articles, with theme of recognizing limits of classical actuarial methods.

Description: The July 2013 issue of the SOA’s Forecasting & Futurism section’s newsletter, Forecasting & Futurism.

Description: This paper presents the fundamentals of creating and using projections. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1950, Vol. 2, No. 4.

Description: This article proposes a framework for estimating mortality improvement models and analyzing the parameter uncertainty in such models.

Description: This article discusses steps to follow to ensure a more rational and productive approach to data analysis.

Description: Feature article discussing the difficult situation of actuarial forecasting with little or no date.

Description: Presented at May 2002 Spring Meeting. Our lecturer presents findings from a research project relating to the Cox, Ingersoll & Ross model of interest rates, including an effective way of pricing general interest rate derivatives and pricing bonds.

Description: A discussion on how to avoid bias when choosing research topics.

Description: In Medicaid rate development, actuaries have not historically shared models that developed the margin (i.e., underwriting gain) assumption. This is unfortunate, given the margin assumption is one of the most critical components of the rate development in ensuring financial solvency of the Medicaid managed care organizations (MCOs). In this session, we will discuss the primary components of the this assumption and will share working models that help actuaries quantify these components—including the cost of capital and risk (or contingency) margin. We expect a lively discussion as we “open the black box” and discuss these actuarial assumptions in the public for the first time.