Description: This survey of emerging risks attempts to track the risk manager population‘s thoughts about emerging risks across time. The top 4 emerging risks from this third iteration of the survey are: 1. US current account deficit/fall in US dollar. 2. Blow up in asset prices/excessive indebtedness. 3. Oil price shock/energy supply interruptions. 4. Chinese economic hard landing.

Description: Recent advances in mortality modeling have enabled applicant-specific quantification of mortality risk in life insurance applicants using laboratory and physical measurements. Relative to more conventional underwriting, this approach identifies a small population of significantly under-priced policy and a much larger, cross-subsidizing group whose risk is presently overestimated. Applicants placed in the highest percentile by this scoring methodology are more than 10X as likely to die in a given period as their demographic peers, and represent approximately 5% of short-term claims. Implications for product design are substantial in both the short- and long-term, as the possibilities for adverse selection grow, and the opportunity for fully individualized pricing raises the more distant prospect of products with as many rate classes as applicants.

Description: 2004 SOA Annual Meeting and Exhibit, New York. The panelists discussed approaches for measuring risk across risk elements on a consistent basis and discuss the methods for aggregating results and measuring diversification.

Description: This article announces the awarding of fellowship credits to Gary Parker for the article he wrote, entitled “Stochastic Analysis of the Interaction Between Investment and Insurance Risks,” and provides a brief synopsis of the paper.

Description: A framework to measure and evaluate the risk-adjusted investment performance given the characteristics of the insurance liability.

Description: This article presents the background around the Post Retirement Needs and Risk call for essays focused on: (1) defined contribution plan risk management strategies; (2) decumulation strategies for retirement and (3) long-term care financing. The important essays from that exercise are presented in this Pension Section News publication along with interviews of the winning authors.

Description: Discusses the influence of market-consistent pricing proponents.

Description: This is the abstract of the paper Risk Classification by Fuzzy Cluster. In this paper an algorithm for risk classification is proposed. This algorithm is based on the concepts of fuzzy cluster. We test our algorithm with two examples, the results are very promising.

Description: The concept of transformed distributions is generalized in this paper. First the concepts of net premium intensity, loaded premium intensity and load generators arc introduced. Then transformed distributions are identified with premium intensity and hence the loaded premium is calculated from transformed distributions. Finally it is shown that this method of premimn calculation is arbitrage free and it incorporates the strengths of the utility approach.

Description: There have been many examples of interest rate swap deals which have not produced the desired results for the end-user, largely due to unanticipated interest rate movements. While the authors of this paper strongly believe that derivatives, such as IR swaps, are powerful tools, which when used properly can effectively transfer risk and enhance the efficiency of markets, they also believe it is critically important to analyze the potential exposure to interest-rate risk. In this article, they provide the necessary background to measure this potential exposure.