Description: Investment Fallacies: On the Validity of Common Portfolio Return Assumptions

Description: Investment Fallacies: Gambler’s Fallacy: Probability of Reversion

Description: Investment Fallacies: The Fallacy of Independence

Description: Investment Fallacies: A real-world approach to Value at Risk

Description: The author provides an overview, from a banking perspective, of Value at Risk VAR and its use as a risk management tool. This article originally appeared in the August 1997 issue of Financial Engineering News and is reprinted with permission.

Description: Property and casualty insurers face risks in many key areas, such as operations, natural catastrophes and underwriting. Among the underwriting risks is the potential financial impact of adverse loss reserves development.This paper illustrates a model of loss reserve risk that will incorporate how risk evolves over time at annual time horizons.

Description: This article examines how parameter uncertainty leads to uncertainty in Value at Risk VaR estimates. Lacking a closed form solution, we use a first order approximation of VaR to map parameter changes into changes in the VaR value. When the asymptotic distribution of parameter estimates is normal, this implies a normal approximation of the confidence interval about VaR. We describe this approximation in detail and explore some extensions to risk factor modeling.

Description: Read the February 2017 issue of Risks and Rewards published by the Investment Section.

Description: Investment Fallacies: The Myth of Time Diversification

Description: Investment Fallacies: Future Equity Returns