Description: Editor's reflection on article entitled, Forecasts That Missed by a Mile.

Description: The purpose of this document is to provide information regarding the specifications of the model to be produced in connection with the project, Population Aging, Implications for Asset Values, and Impact for Pension Plans: An International Study. The authors are seeking input from actuaries and others interested in this work.

Description: Delinquency rates are closely related to the economic conditions and can be analyzed using measures of economic growth and stability. In an attempt to predict the delinquency rate for the health care equipment financial industry, we investigated the relationship between delinquency rate and key macroeconomic variables for the period from 1998 to 2008. The study reveals that the tightening credit standards and unemployment rate are the key macroeconomic indicators influencing the delinquency rate. The analysis further helps in arriving at a trigger to monitor the delinquency rate based on the macroeconomic indicators, thus enabling proactive portfolio management. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: Examines the link between population structure and asset values by generating returns on assets in the presence of demographic change using an OLG Model.

Description: Discussant comments for the 2009 Housing Wealth monograph paper, “History of Mortgage Finance With an Emphasis on Mortgage Insurance.” The paper presents the history of mortgage guarantee insurance in the US beginning briefly with the history of banks and banking regulation and ending with implications for the future. The discussant finds the paper clearly written and that it would make a useful reference based on a reading of a preliminary draft.

Description: This working paper discusses the risks of investing in stocks in public pension funds.

Description: Risk management techniques do not include system science. System science requires that the uncertainty of the world is incorporated into the results. The articles explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. Learn how risk practices create an overoptimistic view of future outcomes.

Description: Outlook for the dynamic economy is the keynote address at 1976 Spring Meeting covering short term economic outlook and characteristics of the US economic system in general.

Description: This session from the 1981 SOA Spring Meeting discusses how the insurance industry will fare under different economic conditions according to an economotric model by Data Resources - DRI. The session also reviews how to incorporate inflation into actuarial calculations and the prospects and possiblities regarding inflation. From Record of Society of Actuaries, Vol. 7, No. 2.

Description: Book Review of How to Cope with the Developing Financial Crisis by Ashby Bladen, McGraw Hill, New York, 1979