Description: This article describes techniques and models used to forecast mortality improvement and the considerations that underlie long-term mortality improvement projections in the United States.

Description: This article describes the use of artificial society modeling to gauge the effect of insurance agent population and effectiveness on individual life insurance sales. This is part of an ongoing effort to extend the use of one type of agent-based modeling beyond health care, but is far from a practical application at this point.

Description: According to the Actuarial Standards Board’s Actuarial Standard of Practice No. 49 (ASOP 49), actuarially sound Medicaid managed care capitation rates will include a provision for underwriting gain in order to provide compensation for the risks assumed by an MCO. However, there is no generally accepted method for quantifying underwriting gain in managed Medicaid capitation rates. This article discusses a new model developed to address this void and calculate underwriting gain. The model was developed by researching existing financial literature and performing a statistical analysis of industry data to build out a framework that can be leveraged to estimate underwriting gain.

Description: Presented at May 1986 Spring Meeting. This session discussion is about the purposes, tools and methods available, scenario testing, updating, special issues and problems. This discussion anticipates the development of new Valuation Actuary reserve adequacy opinion requirements.

Description: The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute received a grant from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) to educate insurance actuaries on the use of wildfire risk datasets and models to be developed by researchers from academia and the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

Description: Consensus of viewpoints from a group discussion on economic forecasting at the March meeting of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries.

Description: Article from The Actuary, April 1972 – volume 6 - Issue 4 talks about econometrics, the serious attempts to advance forecasting from an art to a science.

Description: The article describes the key components of actuarial model, leading practices in designing them, and characteristics of well-built models.

Description: This is a poster presentation about a study to evaluate various methods for projecting health benefit populations.

Description: Specifies 6 rules which help shape not only good crime-scene analysis, but good futures practice, as well. These rules address project management and control.