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Introduction to Forecasting Methods for Actuaries
Life insurance actuaries forecast population mortality and company assets over lifetimes; retirement ... actuarial work. RELEVANT FORECASTING METHODS Table 1 on page 7 and 8 provides an overview of forecast- ...- Authors: Alan Mills
- Date: Sep 2009
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Best Methods and Practices in Judgmental Forecasting
such behavior is common: A 2003 survey of 240 U.S. corpora- tions found that only 11 percent use formal ... Slovic, & Tversky (1982) and Kahneman & Tversky (2000). BEST METHODS AND PRACTICES … 8 | FORECASTING ...- Authors: Alan Mills
- Date: Jul 2010
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Forecasting Judgment: The Netflix Prize and Collaborative Filtering
Forecasting Judgment: The Netflix Prize and Collaborative Filtering Can the aggregate results from ... as subjective and judgmental as one single person’s opinion? Forecasting of this type commonly uses a ...- Authors: Michael Lindstrom
- Date: Jul 2010
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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From the Chairperson: Want to Win an iPad?
From the Chairperson: Want to Win an iPad? A summary of a new feature in the newsletter: ... incorporating best practices outlined in this issue’s article titled “Best Practices in Judgmental Forecasting ...- Authors: Alan Mills
- Date: Jul 2010
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Actuaries: Do We Know Our Limits?
so we put in a link to it. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/52684680/2020%20Hindsight.pdf Scott plans to make ... abilities and limits. How well can you predict U.S. unemployment? There is an iPad 2 in store for the ...- Authors: David Snell
- Date: Jan 2012
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Are Genetic Algorithms Even Applicable to Actuaries?
6 | FORECASTING & FUTURISM JULY 2011 S everal professional fields are currently using genetic ... Complexity: A Guided Tour, Oxford University Press U.S. (2009). 7 Hull, John C., Options, Futures, and ...- Authors: Benjamin Steward Wadsley
- Date: Jul 2011
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Finance & Investments>Asset liability management; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Judgmental Forecasting in Determining Policyholder Behavior Assumptions
Judgmental Forecasting in Determining Policyholder Behavior Assumptions The author explains ... people, with unstructured discus- sion around a table.3 We brainstormed on what made the most sense for ...- Authors: L Doug King
- Date: Jul 2011
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting