Session 39 - The Use of Predictive Analytics to Set Valuation AssumptionsSession 39 - The Use of Predictive Analytics to Set Valuation Assumptions Certain valuation ... reasons. Examples include assumptions for long-term care insurance, annuity options, lapsation and premium ...
Description: Certain valuation assumptions are difficult to set with a high degree of accuracy, whether because the underlying experience is in different economic or interest rate environments, in addition to other reasons. Examples include assumptions for long-term care insurance, annuity options, lapsation and premium persistency on ULSG. This session will share how the actuary can use predictive analytics to augment the assumption-setting process. Some of the benefits to the actuary (along with the company and the regulator) include more accurate assumptions with lower margins for adverse deviations. Of possible interest as well is that applications go beyond valuation and include acquisitions, reinsurance and pricing.Hide
- Authors: Martin Snow, Timothy S Paris
- Date: Aug 2019
- Competency: Strategic Insight and Integration
- Topics: Experience Studies & Data>Morbidity; Technology & Applications>Business intelligence
Policyholder Behavior Experience Data and ModelingPolicyholder Behavior Experience Data and Modeling An exploration of drivers, cohorts and dynamics ... and efficiency should increase over time Where direct data is lacking, should look to similar data from ...
Description: An exploration of drivers, cohorts and dynamics for policyholder behavior for VA and FIA based on industry experience data, including changes in recent years and the emergence of long-term data in key areas. We will also discuss critical elements to developing a sustainable and coherent framework to translate this complex experience data into assumption models.Hide
- Authors: Timothy S Paris
- Date: Nov 2019
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge; Results-Oriented Solutions; Strategic Insight and Integration; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Topics: Annuities; Annuities>Capital - Annuities; Annuities>Fixed annuities; Annuities>Individual annuities; Annuities>Variable annuities; Pensions & Retirement>Risk management; Annuities>Deferred annuities