Description: This document provides answers to the exercises in the report titled Complexity Science – an introduction and invitation for actuaries:.

Description: These files shows the Schelling Segregation model. It accompanies the report Complexity Science - an introduction and invitation for actuaries, and supports the material in Chapter six: Cellular automata.

Description: This document shows you how to set up modeling platforms and start to work with them. Used in conjunction with Complexity Science - An Introduction and Invitiation for Actuaries.

Description: Presented at October 1996 Annual Meeting. An update on Futurism Section activities followed by an introduction to common techniques of futurism. Examples are given how actuaries can use these techniques in their day-to-day work.

Description: This article provides a brief introduction to forecasting methods that are potentially relevant to actuarial work.

Description: A summary of a new feature in the newsletter: a forecasting application contest. The Forecasting and Futurism Section will award a 16GB iPad to the section member who develops the best actuarial application of a judgmental forecasting method, incorporating best practices outlined in this issue’s article titled “Best Practices in Judgmental Forecasting.” In addition, we will feature the winning application in an issue of the newsletter.

Description: In this article, the author examines Nassim Taleb’s work and writings and discusses its relevance to the future of the actuarial profession.

Description: This is an article that discusses Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s work and its significance for actuaries.

Description: Given the ubiquity of judgmental forecasting, it is important to understand the potential biases inherent in human judgment—the traps that can snare us—and to learn methods and best practices to avoid them. The aim of this article is to help readers with these goals.

Description: An introduction to the field of Complexity Science. The report includes an overview of the field’s key results, detailed instructions for building Complexity Science models, examples of working models, review of practical models applicable to the work of actuaries, a literature review, and a discussion on how actuaries can apply Complexity Science in their work.