Description: There have been continual advances in the modeling of financial series but most are aimed at the pricing of derivatives. Different criteria are needed for development of scenarios for risk management. Some recent methods will be reviewed with an eye on risk-management applications, including using the simulated method of moments to parameterize multifactor models, fractional differencing and other methods to model series with persistent autocorrelation, and models to flatten out the volatility smile, such as jump-diffusion models. These methods will be illustrated with applications to inflation, interest rates, equity prices and exchange rates.

Description: ERM has methodology for quantifying the risk to capital, but to determine optimal capital, the impact of capital level on firm value is needed. This gets into the realm of valuation. Also capital allocation provides risk quantification for business units, but comparing return among units is fundamentally a risk-pricing exercise. When considering risk pricing, optimal returns on allocated capital are not necessarily constant across business units. The current ERM methodology, as well as actuarial literature on valuation and pricing, are reviewed, and possible directions for application of pricing and valuation methods to risk management problems are outlined.