Description: Target volatility, as an investment strategy, has been used by many funds not only as a way to smooth return but also as a way to manage risks of the VA guarantees. Contrary to existing research which favors volatility targeting over fixed allocation, this article shows that because of the existence of market jump risk, target volatility strategy does not necessarily offer an improved risk profile for VA writers. Further, target volatility coupled with leveraging can significantly increase tail risk for insurance companies.

Description: This paper demonstrates that extreme value theory (EVT) can be used as a tool to model policyholder behavior in the extreme tail. This paper applies EVT to the study of variable annuity dynamic lapse behavior in the extreme tail. It illustrates a process whereby a company can fully model policyholder behavior, including the extreme tail, with existing data. No judgment about the extremal behavior is necessary.

Description: Feature article from the newsletter Product Matters discussing variable annuities and principle-based approaches to reserve and capital requirements.

Description: Discusses the interactions between dynamic lapses and interest rates in stochastic modeling for variable annuities.

Description: Discusses the newly adopted actuarial guideline for variable annuity reserving which is principles-based. It requires the calculation of both, a standard deterministic scenario reserve and a stochastic reserve - of which the larger of the two is used. This article discusses why for some companies the deterministic reserves dominate and for others the stochastic one does.