Description: The SOA is pleased to make available a report updating the 2012 risk assessment performed by Porteous et al. The report also provided an economic capital analysis for a stylized US plan with the same member profile and the USS provisions modified to reflect a typical US DB plan.

Description: Since most cash flows being discounted in the value calculation are dependent on the forward rates, in the key-rate calculation forwards (not spots) should be shifted. I will show that if spots are shifted up/down, they would not necessarily result in forwards being up/down for all the years in the particular key rate, resulting in unexpected results. I will further show how metrics calculated by shifting forwards versus spots enhance the accuracy of the approximation of projected value in various rate environments.