Description: This paper presents the modeling of mortality risk from exposure to a potential future extreme event such as a natural disaster and a terrorist attack, and its impact on life insurance. With this new model, quantities associated with the total force of mortality such as survival function are derived and the impact of mortality risk on life insurance is examined.

Description: This is a letter from Jan M. Hoem to Arnold F. Shapiro about Exposed-to-risk considerations based on the Balducci assumption and other assumptions in the analysis of mortality.

Description: This paper investigates the use of models of dependent mortality for determining annuity values. We discuss a broad class of parametric models using a bivariate survivorship function called a copula. Using data from a large insurance company to illustrate our methods, we calculate maximum likelihood estimates to calibrate the rnodel.

Description: The purpose of this note is to show how certain formulas of life contingencies can be derived almost painlessly under the uniform distribution of deaths assumption.

Description: The objectives of this paper are to determine the extent to which Makeham's or Gompertz's laws describe recent insurance and population mortality analyze how the constants in the two laws vary with respect to some factors and propose a simple extension to Makeham's law to account for recent departures from the laws, related to difference in sex. Presented at Actuarial Research Conference at Ball State University, September 1, 1978

Description: Securitization of mortality risks is an alternative risk management tool that may have some advantages over reinsurance. The purpose of this paper is to study mortality-based securities, such as swaps and mortality bonds, and to price the proposed mortality securities. We focus on group life annuity data, although the techniques could be applied to other lines of annuity or life insurance.

Description: Recurrence relations arise naturally in life contingencies for 2 reasons - the aggregate law of mortality, which relates the distribution of the future life times of 2 insureds, if one of them and the other is that most life insurance products can be constructed as a portfolio of 2 basic product types. We use the above simple idea and the extra freedom provided by the fractional age distribution to reveal a structure behind some common recursions. The structure has obvious pedagogical value. More interestingly, a software based on it has been implemented which facilitates actuarial computing.

Description: This paper discusses a general model for calculating life contingencies including formulation of the model and net reserves and contingency reserves.

Description: Statistical properties of interest, annuity and insurance functions are examined when mortality and interest are treated as having a random component. Several special models of interest rate fluctuation are examined in detail. It is hoped that such theory will be useful in developing fluctuation reserves and premium margins. Presented at the 13th Annual Actuarial Research Conference, Ball State University, August 31st. September lst, 2nd. 1978.

Description: Recent advances in mortality modeling have enabled applicant-specific quantification of mortality risk in life insurance applicants using laboratory and physical measurements. Relative to more conventional underwriting, this approach identifies a small population of significantly under-priced policy and a much larger, cross-subsidizing group whose risk is presently overestimated. Applicants placed in the highest percentile by this scoring methodology are more than 10X as likely to die in a given period as their demographic peers, and represent approximately 5% of short-term claims. Implications for product design are substantial in both the short- and long-term, as the possibilities for adverse selection grow, and the opportunity for fully individualized pricing raises the more distant prospect of products with as many rate classes as applicants.