Description: Evaluation of the excess mortality element of the Group Conversion charge. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: This paper demonstrates the calculation of the moments of the distribution of aggregate life insurance claims from seriatim inforce data, assuming that each record represents an independent Bernoulli trial with its own known probability of a claim, q. Continuous distributions matching the first three or four moments are identified.

Description: We ask whether we can find support for the previously reported upper limit of the force of mortality of 0.7, i.e. about the probability of tossing a fair coin.

Description: This article discusses the concept of Conservation of Mortality ("Conservation"). Conservation is the modeling principle that ensures consistency between assumptions of the total mortality of a population and mortality among population subsets. This article discusses the use cases for Conservation and the many ways that one could implement it in a model or an experience study. This article also discusses the potential issues that arise when using Conservation, and how one might solve or alleviate these issues.

Description: This paper outlines a statistical modeling framework for fitting mortality laws to mortality experience data. The process can be used as an alternative to traditional graduation techniques used in mortality table development.

Description: Transcript of the Q&A period from Session 6A: Projection and Statistical Modeling of Mortality at Late Age

Description: This article proposes a framework for estimating mortality improvement models and analyzing the parameter uncertainty in such models.

Description: The influenza pandemic of 1918-20 is recognized as having generally taken place in three waves, starting in the northern spring and summer of 1918. This pattern of three waves, however, was not universal: in some locations influenza seems to have persisted into or returned in 1920. The recorded statistics of influenza morbidity and mortality are likely to be a significant understatement. Limitations of these data can include nonregistration, missing records, misdiagnosis, and nonmedical certification, and may also vary greatly between locations. Further research has seen the consistent upward revision of the estimated global mortality of the pandemic, which a 1920s calculation put in the vicinity of 21.5 million. A 1991 paper revised the mortality as being in the range 24.7-39.3 million. This paper suggests that it was of the order of 50 million. However, it must be acknowledged that even this vast figure may be substantially lower than the real toll, perhaps as much as 100 percent understated.

Description: Discussion of the separate and joint effects of obesity and diabetes on disability and mortality, and ways these effects can be used to improved insurance pricing and reserving, reverse the increasing rates of obesity and diabetes, and improve current projections of disability and mortality risks.

Description: This paper introduces the modern concepts and definitions of the statistical subject of life testing, and ties them in with corresponding concepts of actuarial science. This paper additionally presents a justification of some common laws of mortality. Discussions of the paper are included.