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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't A book review by Scott McInturff of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't ...- Date: Jul 2013
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Problem analysis and definition
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Bayesian methods
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Calibrating Risk Score Model with Partial Credibility
Calibrating Risk Score Model with Partial Credibility This article describes a method that can be useful when re-fitting a risk score model to a population of only moderate size. Learn how to use ...- Authors: Sheamus Parkes, Bradley Armstrong
- Date: Jul 2015
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Innovative solutions; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Problem analysis and definition; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Process and technique refinement
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Health & Disability>Health care; Health & Disability>Health insurance; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Bayesian methods; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Data mining; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Estimation methods; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Regression analysis; Predictive Analytics
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Calibrating Risk Score Model with Partial Credibility
Calibrating Risk Score Model with Partial Credibility by Shea Parkes and Brad Armstrong Learn how to use concepts like ridge regression to train a model with partial credibility. Predictive ...- Authors: Sheamus Parkes, Brad Armstrong
- Date: Oct 2015
- Competency: Results-Oriented Solutions>Actionable recommendations; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Innovative solutions; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Problem analysis and definition; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Process and technique refinement
- Publication Name: Expanding Horizons
- Topics: Health & Disability>Health care; Health & Disability>Health insurance; Health & Disability>Health risks; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Bayesian methods; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Data mining; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Estimation methods; Predictive Analytics
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An Uncharacteristic Application of Actuarial Science
An Uncharacteristic Application of Actuarial Science An in-depth look at how actuarial skills and competencies picked up in the field can be applied to topics that aren't traditionally ...- Authors: Michael Adams
- Date: Nov 2015
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Innovative solutions
- Publication Name: Actuary of the Future
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Bayesian methods
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Tables from Paper on Use of Bayes Lemma to Construct Frequency Distribution of qx
Tables from Paper on Use of Bayes Lemma to Construct Frequency Distribution of qx A method is presented which uses Bayes Lemma in an elementary way to construct posterior probabilities to be ...- Authors: William A Bailey
- Date: Jan 1978
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Actuarial Research Clearing House
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Bayesian methods
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Bayesian Networks for Predictive Modeling
Bayesian Networks for Predictive Modeling Feature article discussing the use of Bayesian Networks as predictive modeling tools. Bayesian Methods;Modeling efficiency;Predictive Modeling 6/26/2013 ...- Authors: Jeff T Heaton
- Date: Jun 2013
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge; External Forces & Industry Knowledge>Actuarial methods in business operations
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Bayesian methods
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Bayesian Inference for Small Population Longevity Risk Modelling
Bayesian Inference for Small Population Longevity Risk Modelling This presentation considers the impact of sampling variation on the calibration of stochastic mortality models. stochastic ...- Authors: Liang Chen, Torsten Kleinow, Andrew Cairns
- Date: Mar 2017
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Bayesian methods
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STOCHASTIC APPROACHES TO CORPORATE PLANNING
STOCHASTIC APPROACHES TO CORPORATE PLANNING This teaching session is about conveying to users of models and forecasts how uncertain the outcome of stochastic projections really is. Return on ...- Authors: Frank S Irish
- Date: Apr 1977
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Innovative solutions
- Publication Name: Record of the Society of Actuaries
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Bayesian methods; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Stochastic models
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Simulating A Predictive Multivariate Total Claim Distribution With Excel VBA
Simulating A Predictive Multivariate Total Claim Distribution With Excel VBA In this paper we propose a model that can be used to analyze correlated claims data. In the process we introduce a ...- Authors: Rohana Ambagaspitiya
- Date: Jul 2007
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Innovative solutions; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Problem analysis and definition
- Topics: Health & Disability; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Bayesian methods; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Simulation
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Actuaries as Heroes
Actuaries as Heroes Book review of The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy ...- Authors: Jay Jaffe
- Date: Dec 2013
- Competency: Communication>Written communication
- Publication Name: The Actuary Magazine
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Bayesian methods