Description: This paper demonstrates that extreme value theory (EVT) can be used as a tool to model policyholder behavior in the extreme tail. This paper applies EVT to the study of variable annuity dynamic lapse behavior in the extreme tail. It illustrates a process whereby a company can fully model policyholder behavior, including the extreme tail, with existing data. No judgment about the extremal behavior is necessary.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. This paper examines the trends of mortality improvement in the United States for the consideration of the task force set up in 2010 to review the life tables for Group Annuity and the related assumptions for mortality improvement 'Scale AA', using more recent information from the Social Security Administration life tables and data derived from the Human Mortality Database.