Description: Presented at May 2002 Spring Meeting. Our lecturer presents findings from a research project relating to the Cox, Ingersoll & Ross model of interest rates, including an effective way of pricing general interest rate derivatives and pricing bonds.

Description: In Medicaid rate development, actuaries have not historically shared models that developed the margin (i.e., underwriting gain) assumption. This is unfortunate, given the margin assumption is one of the most critical components of the rate development in ensuring financial solvency of the Medicaid managed care organizations (MCOs). In this session, we will discuss the primary components of the this assumption and will share working models that help actuaries quantify these components—including the cost of capital and risk (or contingency) margin. We expect a lively discussion as we “open the black box” and discuss these actuarial assumptions in the public for the first time.

Description: Presented at October 1996 Annual Meeting. An update on Futurism Section activities followed by an introduction to common techniques of futurism. Examples are given how actuaries can use these techniques in their day-to-day work.

Description: Presented at October 1986 Annual Meeting. This session discussion is about the World Future Society meeting held in July, 1986, covering such topics as business, emergency management, finance, new technologies, work, careers and more. The panelists will offer an actuary's perspective of this gathering of futurists from various backgrounds and perspectives.

Description: Presented at May 1986 Spring Meeting. This session discussion is about the purposes, tools and methods available, scenario testing, updating, special issues and problems. This discussion anticipates the development of new Valuation Actuary reserve adequacy opinion requirements.

Description: This is a poster presentation about a study to evaluate various methods for projecting health benefit populations.

Description: On October 30, 2006, the UK government's Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change made startling claims about the present value today of climate change effects predicted to emerge primarily 150 years or more in the future. The ensuing debate included challenges to and defenses of the particular methodology used and parameter values selected to perform the discounting of future values. Noticing an overlooked faux pas in the Stern Review, this presentation uncovers the likely motivation for choosing the most mystifying of the parameters values, and provides a lesson on the underpinnings of the basic tool of actuarial science.

Description: Presented at April 1986 Spring Meeting. This session discussion is about the techniques for understanding and analyzing trends in medical care, including: utilization and cost components, analysis of cyclical behavior, use of econometric models, and aggregate trend vs. employer-specific needs.

Description: Presented at October 1996 Annual Meeting. This session presents a forecasting model of economic assumptions that are inputs to projections of the Social Security system. Social Security projections are made to help policymakers understand the financial stability of the system.

Description: Presented at June 1985 Spring Meeting. Futures research is a demonstrated scientific approach to understanding what the future environment will be. Presentation discusses what it is, where did it start, who uses it and why, does it work, who benefits, what are some simple futures research techniques, how to make it work, what are today's key trends for tomorrow's insurance industry, and how to start a simple futures research program.