Description: The July 2013 issue of the SOA’s Forecasting & Futurism section’s newsletter, Forecasting & Futurism.

Description: Explores the open vs. closed systems debate with regards to actuarial modeling and exposes the over-simplification. Valuable for anyone who uses models.

Description: This article discusses steps to follow to ensure a more rational and productive approach to data analysis.

Description: Feature article discussing the difficult situation of actuarial forecasting with little or no date.

Description: This paper is from Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1955 Volume 7, Number 17. The author discusses the advantages to management of preparing estimates of annual earnings early in the year, for planning and budgeting, deciding on changes to dividend scales, estimating earnings from interest, mortality, and expenses against expected, etc. The author lays out his method of forecasting based on gains and losses by source of earnings, using readily available data including various annual statement exhibits. The author notes that judgment is important as well as statistical analysis in making reasonable forecasts.

Description: This study note was written to supplement the “Credibility” chapter of Foundations of Casualty Actuarial Science as a reading for the fourth CAS/SOA examination. It presents important topics not covered in the Foundations chapter including the Bühlmann-Straub Model and nonparametric and semiparametric estimation of credibility formula parameters.

Description: Article Society Seminars by Adams in The Actuary, February 1979, Volume 13, Number 2

Description: Summary of NAIC's Winter National Meeting

Description: In this paper we shall present our results in terms of the estimation of human mortality rates, but the results carry over to other applications. We shall discuss a Bayesian model that encompasses both graduation [smoothing] and prediction.

Description: The next evolution of actuarial systems in the U.S. will likely be a move toward a single system solution. This article defines a single system solution and illustrates how models can be shared across actuarial functions, the potential benefits of a single system solution, and describes potential mitigation strategies to address typical actuarial concerns.