Description: This paper uses a mortality surge model to estimate the total financial impact on the U.S. insurance industry of a flu pandemic. It does not attempt to determine the probability of such a pandemic.

Description: Under non-Aristotelian logic, there are multiple values, or shades of gray. Indeed, there may even be unexpected results from logical combinations, like “both” and “neither.” This article discusses how this insight should be applied to the current debate between formula-driven reserves with limited assumption flexibility and the reserve principles approach. For reserve standards, we do need both actuarial judgment grounded in reserving principles and restrictive formula methods or safe harbors.

Description: The Society's Task Force to Study Risk of Loss from Changes in the Interest Rate Environment C-3 Risk Task Force was formed in March 1981 with the charge to quantify C-3 risk. The Task Force made a preliminary report as part of a panel discussion on C-3 risk at the Society's October 1981 meeting in Atlanta. This presentation provides an update on the progress to date and its future plans.

Description: Presentation from the 41st Actuarial Research Conference with the main topic of analyzing the life insurance industry.