Description: Presentation from the 41st Actuarial Research Conference held on August 10-12, 2006 in Montreal, Canada. Fuzzy set theory is incorporated into times series analysis, giving fuzzy parameter estimates of models such as ARMA and GARCH. Examples are given, including returns on a stock and option valuation.

Description: Presented at August 2011 46th Actuarial Research Conference. Compression methods improve model run time. This talk discusses compression features, trade-offs, validation, and recommended practice.

Description: discussion of the ongoing developments in reserving and risk-based capital RBC requirements for variable annuities including stochastic scenario projections

Description: Technical paper on how to efficiently perform scenario testing for principle-based approaches.

Description: From a teaching session at the 2001 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, November 29-30, 2001 Panelists analyze the modeling considerations in projecting asset cash flows and asset valuations.

Description: When setting reserves, multiple methods are often used in the creation of the reserve estimate. Judgment is warranted to combine these different estimates into a final recommendation. This paper describes two techniques that can be used to combine these estimates that may result in better accuracy and lower variance.

Description: This paper examines tandem levels of salary and interest rates and finds that the absolute level of each assumption as well as the differential are significant cost determinants for defined benefit pension plans. In forming best-estimate salary and interest rate assumptions, the actuary must reconcile the difference, if any, between the currently observed rates and the valuation assumptions. Common practice is to choose expected long-term rather than observed rates for valuation purposes. The error in this procedure is analyzed and found to be tolerable for strictly temporary discrepancies between observed rates and valuation assumptions. For situations where these discrepancies are expected to persist for some time, a need is shown for nonuniform, calendar-year assumptions or their equivalent in order to develop best-estimate assumptions. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: Eric Friedman’s comments on ‘The Case for Stochastic Present Values,” by Dimitry Mindlin

Description: This is an abstract for the paper, Analysis of Costs for a Chronic Disease with Acute High Cost Episodes by Marjorie Rosenberg and Philip Farrell.