Description: In this paper the author presents an application of Bayesian forecasting methods to the estimation of reserves for outstanding claims. He assumes that the time number of periods it takes for the claims to be completely paid is fixed and known, that payments are made annually and that the development of partial payments follows a stable pay-off pattern. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2003, Vol 1.

Description: This paper presents an additional view of estimating parameters of the force of mortality using Bayesian methods. Some examples are provided. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993 VOL. 1.

Description: The problem of estimation of a tabular survival model from complete samples is considered from a Bayesian approach. If a life test involves a large cohort group, then data is typically given as a grouped data set. The survival function St is usually estimated by the moment estimator. We approximate the joint prior distribution of the unknown unconditional failure probabilities by a Dirichlet distribution, and then use a linear relationship between St and the conditional survival probabilities to obtain a Bayes estimator of St.

Description: In this paper we shall present our results in terms of the estimation of human mortality rates, but the results carry over to other applications. We shall discuss a Bayesian model that encompasses both graduation [smoothing] and prediction.

Description: A method is presented which uses Bayes Lemma in an elementary way to construct posterior probabilities to be attached to each of several alternative prior distributions, given a few observations. The availability of efficient computer programs to numerically perform discrete convolutions for producing prior distributions makes this a practical method. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1978, Vol.2.

Description: In this paper, the Bayesian model of collective risk theory is extended in the sense that a large class of distributions is used instead of a single one. The authors then investigate the sensitivity of variance premium principle when the structure function belongs to that class. According to robust Bayesian methodology, the uncertainty in the prior can be modeled by specifying a class of priors instead of a single one. The authors examine the ranges of the Bayesian premium, also called experience rated premium, when the priors belong to that class. Most of the robust Bayesian procedures developed measures of sensitivity of quantities which can be expressed in terms of posterior expectation [e.g., mean, variance and probability of given sets]. Nevertheless, relatively few papers have been related to measure Bayesian sensitivity of quantities which can be expressed in terms of ratio of two posterior expectations, as occurs in the variance premium principle. Appropriate techniques to solve this situation are considered. Unimodality turns out to be very convenient for modelling subjective beliefs about the risk parameter. The very common Poisson-Gamma model is developed in depth using this paper's methodology.

Description: This paper addresses various modifications of the Kimeldorf-Jones Bayesian graduation method. These enhancements entail the use of time series and eigenvalue decomposition. By augmenting the existing method one can empirically smooth the Kimeldorf-Jones technique. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, VOL. 1.

Description: In this paper the ad-hoc Bayesian derivation of the Whittaker method is replaced with a formal Bayesian specification, and then it is shown that with this specification it is possible to complete the graduation without making an arbitrary selection of the smoothing parameter. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1992, VOL. 1.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to perform conjugate Bayesian analysis on the negative binomial distribution with the goal of providing a standard by which approximate credibility formulas and approximate predictive distriubtion may be judged. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 1.

Description: This paper describes an analysis of data anomalies on computer records on 246 federally-insured mortgages. Twenty-three of the corresponding mortgages were sampled and all were found to have identical amortization plans and to have been insured under the same insurance fund. The question posed, in probabilistic terms, is the following: How many of the remaining 223 mortgages are identical in these two aspects to the 23 sampled mortgages?