Description: This article compares the best estimates of the Investment Section members those who submitted entries for the 3-month Treasury bill rate, 30-year Treasury bond rate and the Dow Jones Industrial Average index value and year-end 1999 with the actuals.

Description: This article explores the market volatility of 2008, and addresses the following question: “was the market behaving inefficiently as appeared to be the case in 2008, or was there something truly rational going on, which for most people was hard to see?”

Description: Chronically low interest rates are a reflection of macroeconomic trends. Care must be exercised in making assumptions regarding mean reversion.

Description: Introduction to option pricing using Black-Scholes. Discussion on the limitations of Black-Scholes and of its alternatives such as Heston. Clear, accessible explanation of key results of mathematical finance including risk-neutral valuation.

Description: Traditional predictive tools are not built to deal with the variability the world currently faces. The COVID-19 pandemic amounts to a prolonged black swan event, for which one must look past conventional assessments to arrive at any level of confident predictions. Behavioral analysis factors for biases and heuristics designed specifically for uncertain evolutionary contexts, and which are the primary drivers of market participants’ decisions at present. Through understanding the most likely behaviors of individuals, it becomes possible to arrive at an aggregate understanding of market outcomes.

Description: “The Great Tech Bubble is one of the great bubbles and collapses in financial market history. It’s an excellent reminder of the madness that humans in financial markets are capable of. That’s just in case we need another reminder right now.”

Description: While the major market crash subsequent to the widespread contagion of the COVID-19 virus was readily predictable, the rapid recovery and ongoing growth subsequent to it was not. Market dynamics around the recovery resist characterization by most traditional analytical approaches. In examining the circumstances around the emergence of a large retail class of investors, one sees that ingrained human tendencies, particularly optimism bias, have fueled much investor behavior responsible for the recovery. Understanding this makes it possible to predict potential future crashes and develop behavioral interventions for subsequent market recoveries.

Description: GDP growth has slowed as numerous headwinds have emerged. This article summarizes a research paper by Mark Alberts and Max Rudolph that addresses reasons why this is so and how risk managers can address using scenarios.

Description: Review of the address given by Richard H. Thaler, Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics at the University of Chicago at the Investment Section at the Society of Actuaries meeting in New York on October 20.

Description: This 2001 article warns against the risks of investing in an IPO, particularly in light of recent history.