Description: This research report models the impact on the U.S. insurance market resulting from a post-Brexit economy in the UK.

Description: To address non-parallel movement in the interest rates the concept of key-rate duration was introduced in mid-'80s by Tom Ho. I will define certain key rate metrics, their variation used in the industry, how to calculate them, and an existing industry issue with how they are used. Additionally, I propose a novel technique to calculate key rates to mitigate the problem faced in the industry

Description: To address non-parallel movement in the interest rates the concept of key-rate duration was introduced in mid-'80s by Tom Ho. I will define certain key rate metrics, their variation used in the industry, how to calculate them, and an existing industry issue with how they are used. Additionally, I propose a novel technique to calculate key rates to mitigate the problem faced in the industry

Description: Risk management techniques do not include system science. System science requires that the uncertainty of the world is incorporated into the results. The articles explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. Learn how risk practices create an overoptimistic view of future outcomes.

Description: The article provides a high-level, non-technical, introduction to artificial neural networks (ANNs) and deep learning with an application to risk management. The method relies on typical ANN components such as nodes, activation functions, and optimization through gradient descent.

Description: Newly released spring 2019 data added to the Actuaries Climate Index show that more frequent extreme weather and increases in sea level continue to push the index upward. The ACI’s five-year moving average now stands at 1.16, up from 1.12 last quarter.

Description: This article will highlight the issue that the sum of key-rate metrics does not add to metrics derived by parallel shift to the entire curve, even at very low shift size. Additionally, in the article I will outline how to define a single rate change to be applied to a key rate (or the entire curve) since the rate changes are generally not level or parallel.

Description: Duration matching is a risk management strategy, commonly used in the insurance industry, where the duration (price sensitivity to a yield curve movement) of an asset portfolio is adjusted to be made equal to the duration of the liability. However, this approach has flaws. In this essay, I note some key failures of duration matching and offer a potential alternative.

Description: The mismatch between how interest rate impacts the value of assets and liabilities could have material negative impact to companies’ earnings and surplus. To quantify and mitigate the impact of such mismatches, companies have used matching a combination of duration and convexity. I will review these measurement techniques and their limitations.

Description: Risk management techniques do not include system science. System science requires that the uncertainty of the world is incorporated into the results. The articles explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. Learn how risk practices create an overoptimistic view of future outcomes.