Examining Auto Loss Trends through the COVID Pandemic

Authors

Robert Richardson, ASA, PhD
Brian Hartman, ASA, PhD

Description

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute, the American Property Casualty Insurance Association and the Casualty Actuarial Society are pleased to present a report examining how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the auto insurance industry. In this report we will examine the effects of the pandemic on auto losses using dynamic linear models. We examine which predictors best describe the trends, and the impact the pandemic has on predicted future claims.

Materials

Examining Auto Loss Trends through the COVID Pandemic

Examining Auto Loss Trends through the COVID Pandemic Appendix

GIP125_Examining_Auto_Loss_Trends_through_the_COVID_Pandemic_Rcode_MilesTraveledScrape.R

GIP125-Auto-Loss-Cost-Reports GitHub Repository

Podcast

Research Insights - Examining Auto Loss Trends through the COVID Pandemic.

Data Visualization

Acknowledgments

The researchers’ deepest gratitude goes to those without whose efforts this project could not have come to fruition: the Project Oversight Group for their diligent work overseeing, reviewing, and editing this report for accuracy and relevance.

Project Oversight Group members:

David R. Clark, FCAS, MAAA
Brian Fannin ACAS CSPA MAAA
Newton Jennings, FCAS, MAAA
Thomas G. Myers, FCAS, MAAA
Norman Niami FCAS, MAAA, Affiliate IFoA
Robert C. Passmore, CPCU

At the Society of Actuaries Research Institute:

Dale Hall, FSA, MAAA, CERA, CFA – Managing Director of Research
Rob Montgomery, ASA, MAAA, FLMI, Consultant – Research Project Manager

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