Description: After a decade of traditional actuarial work in health care, David Sotelo was seeking a new kind of opportunity to make an impact. He found it at Collective Health, where he works with a team of actuaries and data scientists that use analytics to streamline health insurance.

Description: Describes actuarial approaches used to quantify the benefit to employers of implementing financial wellness programs for their employees.

Description: Highlight the importance of assigning granular policyholder behavior assumptions to cohorts of a block that behave differently for universal life products. The case study assumption testing will focus on potential cash flow impacts of surrender, lapse and premium persistency behavior— individually and combined. The case study will be based on testing data related to typical demographics for a ULSG product and not on any specific company data.

Description: Overview on current trends in medical practice impacting the LTC insurance business with a focus on dementia, risk stratification, and predictive modeling.

Description: Overview about the information covered in the Predictive Analytics Certificate and how that is useful for actuaries.

Description: Abstracts of recent articles of interest to health actuaries

Description: Health claims are not normally distributed. Claims Forecasting can be improved by understanding the entire distribution of plausible values of future claims, for example knowing there is an 80% chance future claims are between $340 and $375 PMPM. Confidence intervals around our estimates allow us to understand for each range around the best estimate (for example +/- 1%) what is the probability that future claims will fall in that range. Quantile Regression is a mathematical technique where you can estimate any percentile of the claims distribution you are looking for as a function of demographics, diagnosis indicators, prior cost variables, or other significant predictors. You can see which coefficients are important at different parts of the distribution. Individual and group distributions can be constructed. There are numerous applications in pricing and underwriting, stop loss, provider profiling, ACO target setting, allocation of group risk charges based on volatility, discounting strategy, and experience analysis.

Description: There is a growing amount of “off-balance sheet” talent in the US and Global workforce. This spans from consultants and contractors, to gig workers and the crowd (both curated crowd and open crowd). One such example is Uber and Lyft workers. Insurance companies and the Actuarial profession have started to experiment with platforms such as Kaggle and this will continue to grow and evolve. This article explores these new sources of talent for companies, the implications to the actuarial function, benefits and challenges of the evolving workforce.

Description: In this presentation, actuaries and data scientists from Cleveland Clinic and Milliman discuss the development of a sepsis prediction model using machine learning. Presented with a unique challenge of handling massive amounts of data for near real-time risk scoring, the team took their model development to the cloud and delivered a product in less than a week through a unique virtual engagement.

Description: How actuaries can become comfortable accessing, integrating and building complex data sets from big and broad sources of information to study the value of multidimensional drivers of change.