Description: This article is the final installment of our three-part series on economic scenario generators (“ESGs”). Part I and II were published in the November 2019 and August 2020 issues of The Modeling Platform. Part III contextualizes the framework for selecting, building, and validating ESGs and focuses on the Academy Interest Rate Generator (“AIRG”), the most commonly used real-world ESG for US actuaries

Description: Analyze financial risk and explore the foundation for pricing, valuation and other functions served by actuaries in the modeling profession during this webcast. Expect a focus on the importance of understanding and preventing bias. Observe the different types of bias, how it can enter into models, how to identify it in models and best avoidance practices. Join our presenter who is pursuing a Masters in Economic Analytics at Clemson University as he incorporates his recent economic research into the webcast material.

Description: "As digitization and automation rapidly progress in today’s life and health industry, issues with misrepresentation during the insurance application process are also becoming a growing concern for insurers around the globe. A recent survey finds that misrepresentation in application forms costs the average insurance customer an estimated 5% to 10% in higher premiums. In order to reduce this risk, insurers must find and correct areas of misrepresentation, consult post-issue sampling, review the automated underwriting processes, and monitor the quality of financial advisory firms. Learn how predictive disclosure modeling detects and reduces misrepresentation by harnessing readily available underwriting data to analyze issues, helping insurers understand various drivers for disclosure rates and areas of misrepresentation.Advantages of this modeling to various stakeholders in the life insurance journey include improved risk selection, claims experience, and reinsurance terms for insurers. For customers, it leads to increased certainty of coverage, payout of the claim, and ultimately lower premiums on average. By the end of the session, attendees will understand: The disclosure modeling process at a high level The technical details of a standard approach to disclosure modeling: data cleaning, standardization, visualization, and predictive modeling Success stories about how predictive disclosure modeling has impacted insurers"

Description: This report provides a toolkit for actuaries and other interested parties to model and forecast mortality by cause and socioeconomic factors.

Description: In the United States, there has been much industry discussion of the challenges associated with a sustained low interest rate environment, which impacts both the asset and liability sides of the balance sheet in unfavorable ways. The intent of this article is not to focus on these strategic issues. Rather, we attempt to shine a spotlight on some of the modeling challenges that practicing actuaries may experience when incorporating negative interest rates into their models.

Description: In the first part of this series, the presenters will provide the results of a recent SOA multi-country survey on mortality improvement practices of life insurance companies. In the second part of this session, they will discuss the issues and solutions related to the development of the most recent RPEC mortality improvement assumptions.

Description: This paper provides actuaries with background and scientific knowledge to understand global climate change and climate model projections for the 21st century.

Description: This article discusses the reliance the banking industry placed on sophisticated mathematical models.

Description: A disscussion of actuar R, an R package for actuarial science, and its facilities in the fields of loss distribution modeling, risk theory and credibility theory.

Description: This paper shows the mortality element can be partially isolated allowing an exact annuity value to be readily obtained at any interest rate. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1979, Vol.2.