Description: In this article, the author examines Nassim Taleb’s work and writings and discusses its relevance to the future of the actuarial profession.

Description: This is an article that discusses Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s work and its significance for actuaries.

Description: Presented at October 1996 Annual Meeting. An update on Futurism Section activities followed by an introduction to common techniques of futurism. Examples are given how actuaries can use these techniques in their day-to-day work.

Description: An overview of forecasting methods potentially applicable to the work of actuaries, including preferred applications, current usage among actuaries and within the general business community, along with references for further study.

Description: An overview of forecasting methods potentially applicable to the work of actuaries, including preferred applications, current usage among actuaries and within the general business community, along with references for further study.

Description: This paper explores how health care complexity challenges us to expand our repertoire of actuarial methods—and even recast our trend driver paradigm—in order to do our jobs better and maintain our credibility.

Description: This document provides answers to the exercises in the report titled Complexity Science – an introduction and invitation for actuaries:.

Description: Introduction of the new Forecasting and Futurism Section – helps members stay current, and facilitates professional development by providing information about and training in forecasting and futurism methods and tools.

Description: This article provides a brief introduction to forecasting methods that are potentially relevant to actuarial work.

Description: Given the ubiquity of judgmental forecasting, it is important to understand the potential biases inherent in human judgment—the traps that can snare us—and to learn methods and best practices to avoid them. The aim of this article is to help readers with these goals.