Description: "As digitization and automation rapidly progress in today’s life and health industry, issues with misrepresentation during the insurance application process are also becoming a growing concern for insurers around the globe. A recent survey finds that misrepresentation in application forms costs the average insurance customer an estimated 5% to 10% in higher premiums. In order to reduce this risk, insurers must find and correct areas of misrepresentation, consult post-issue sampling, review the automated underwriting processes, and monitor the quality of financial advisory firms. Learn how predictive disclosure modeling detects and reduces misrepresentation by harnessing readily available underwriting data to analyze issues, helping insurers understand various drivers for disclosure rates and areas of misrepresentation.Advantages of this modeling to various stakeholders in the life insurance journey include improved risk selection, claims experience, and reinsurance terms for insurers. For customers, it leads to increased certainty of coverage, payout of the claim, and ultimately lower premiums on average. By the end of the session, attendees will understand: The disclosure modeling process at a high level The technical details of a standard approach to disclosure modeling: data cleaning, standardization, visualization, and predictive modeling Success stories about how predictive disclosure modeling has impacted insurers"

Description: "Explore a general introduction to the opportunity of applying a relatively newer area in machine learning called uplift modeling, which has been successfully used in retail (Wayfair etc). The concepts are parallel to the intervention programs in health care, where we are interested in measuring the treatment effects and ultimately directing the right members to the most effective programs, driving the highest value for the programs both from a financial and health outcomes perspective. Uplift modeling can also be viewed in context of causal modeling where we are interested in assigning cause to a treatment relative to a member not receiving the treatment. Check out an introduction on the concept, seehow it relates and builds on existing work, and use a demo to showcase the potential of integrating this ML approach to current work."

Description: Regression to the mean (RTTM) is inflating your health care intervention evaluations if you are not carefully managing it's omnipresent and significant impact RTTM is the statistical phenomenon which arises when comparing sequential data points when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, and states that with no other intervention, future observations will be closer to the average. Members who had high costs last year will, on average, have lower costs this year, even in the absence of any intervention or clinical program, simply by 'regressing' to the mean. This means that if your clinical programs are simply targeting members who had adverse medical experience last year, you’re targeting the wrong people. And if your savings methodologies are simply last year’s costs minus this year’s costs, the savings are inflated. By attending this session, you will be able to identify situations where RTTM will be a significant factor, how to eliminate it's impact when performing retrospective evaluations, how to identify prospects for clinical intervention with RTTM in mind, and more.

Description: Almost half of recent FDA approvals have been for orphan drugs. This trend is expected to continue in 2023. Orphan drugs are priced more than 30 times higher than non-orphan drugs, therefore their cost burden in aggregate has the potential to overwhelm the budgets of payers, especially that of smaller health plans. Hear how the cost impact analysis for smaller health plans require different considerations than for a larger health plan when modeling the impact of rare diseases.

Description: Hear about some applications using quantile regression-derived individual and group claim distributions and how they may be used in various traditional health care modeling situations. The session will not focus on the technical use of quantile regression to obtain estimates of claim distributions, but more so is intended to focus on the uses of the distributions in actuarial modeling and the additive framework in assessing claims distributions. Presenters will show how actuaries can better assess risks by focusing on the individual- and group-specific claims distributions as opposed to traditional point-estimate-centric models.

Description: Article describing content and key takeaways from experience completing the SOA PA Certificate

Description: In this presentation, actuaries and data scientists from Cleveland Clinic and Milliman discuss the development of a sepsis prediction model using machine learning. Presented with a unique challenge of handling massive amounts of data for near real-time risk scoring, the team took their model development to the cloud and delivered a product in less than a week through a unique virtual engagement.

Description: While many know that machine learning is a big deal and even have a general idea of what it is, many do not know what machine learning can do for them. As an alternative to citing achievements or explaining algorithms, this article outlines the challenges that occur in statistics and the solutions that machine learning offers. Some of those challenges include correlated predictors, missing data, data interaction, and prediction intervals. Corresponding solutions include regularization technics, missing value imputation with KNN, tree based models, and cluster analysis for backtesting.

Description: Learn more about the predictive modeling that was applied to industry data for the lapse and mortality experience in the post-level term period. Novel approaches were taken to model the shock lapse, subsequent lapse, and mortality experience. Observe a demonstration of the Tableau tool, which was built to allow users to analyze data on their own.

Description: Reunite with members and non-members in the China actuarial community to discuss recent topics and related issues in areas such as macroeconomic sharing, IFRS 17, product strategy, cross-border communication and discussion, and more. Advance your career through learning and networking opportunities, and share your experiences in the finance and insurance industries, as well as other fields related to actuarial science.