Description: This paper presents a multi-state stochastic model for analyzing continuing care retirement community CCRC populations. The model considers CCRCs with a number of independent living units and a skilled nursing facility. Residents may transfer temporarily or permanently to this facility. It is assumed that units vacated by deaths, withdrawals or permanent transfers are immediately occupied by new residents. Transfers are modeled using a time-homogeneous Markov process. The paper provides some probabilistic results and some numerical results obtained using this model. Some important generalizations of the model are also briefly discussed.

Description: Explores the open vs. closed systems debate with regards to actuarial modeling and exposes the over-simplification. Valuable for anyone who uses models.

Description: Summary of NAIC's Winter National Meeting

Description: A study on stochastic simulation literature as it applies to a health actuary.

Description: Discussion that developing credibility factors for group health insurance can be accomplished empirically through the use of stochastic models with appropriate parameters and fairly readily obtainable data, without the need for unrealistic assumptions.

Description: This paper presents a new methodology for obtaining fast algorithms and closed form solutions for pricing callable bonds in continuous time models. Results are directly applicable to regulatory scenario testing, immunization and market value accounting.

Description: After reading the Panjer-Bellhouse paper in the Proceedings of the Ball State University Conference, I wondered whether their technique could be used when a realistic investment process was assumed. I believe that such an extension is necessary if the theory is to have any practical application I have had little success in trying to do this. I have decided to present some thoughts and to invite others with different perspectives to bring them to fruition.

Description: Panel session exploring a variety of issues connected to long-term disability reserve buyouts, including: · Advantages and risks for buyers and sellers · Use of appropriate reserving assumptions · Possible financial structures for a buyout

Description: This presentation is a panel discussion, session number 9PD, from the 2000 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held September 14-15 in Washington, DC. A fundamental assumption in stochastic asset/liability modeling is the underlying economic scenario generator. In this session the panelists discuss various scenario generation techniques, assumptions underlying bond and equity scenario generators, and choosing suitable economic scenario generators for different applications. Discussion from participants is included.

Description: The next evolution of actuarial systems in the U.S. will likely be a move toward a single system solution. This article defines a single system solution and illustrates how models can be shared across actuarial functions, the potential benefits of a single system solution, and describes potential mitigation strategies to address typical actuarial concerns.