Description: "Demographic components of Future Potential Old-Age Support Ratios – Kirill Andreev, Ph.D., United Nations, Population Division, New York, Mila Andreeva, KAMA Consulting Effect of internal Migration on the Health of Taiwan’s Elderly People – Jack C. Yue, Ph.D., – National Chengchi University, Department of Statistics, Taipei, TaiwanPopulation Aging and Canada’s Social Contract: Covid-19 Catalyst for Change – Douglas Andrews, FSA, FCIA, Ph.D., Lori J. Curtis, Ph.D., – University of Waterloo"

Description: Response to Life Insurance 2020 Foresight – A Call for Essays. An essay stating the author’s vision for the future of the life insurance sector. Focus is on the long term guarantee embedded in the basic life insurance contract to pay the death benefit.

Description: Navigate a perspective on the process of developing estimates and projections of mortality rates, based on a Living to 100 paper by the teacher. Discover the approach and considerations an actuary (or others) can take to develop a mortality rate assumption for five time periods. It will describe techniques to estimate historical mortality rates from which to project future mortality rates.

Description: "Population Aging, Global Climate Change and Social Security – Sally Shen, Research Associate, Global Risk Institute, John A. Turner, Ph.D., Director, Pension PolicyClimate Change and Mortality Time for Actuaries to Pay Attention – Sam Gutterman. FSA, CERA, FCAS, FCA, HONFIA, MAAA"

Description: "How long is long in longevity? – Jesús-Adrian Álvarez, Ph.D. - Danish Labour Market Supplementary Pension Fund (ATP), The Rate of Aging in humans is constant. New evidence – Marcus Ebeling, PhD., Research Group Mathematical and Actuarial Demography, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Department of Sociology and Demography, University of Rostock, Rostock, Germany; Roland Rau, Ph.D., Professor, Research Group Mathematical and Actuarial Demography, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, C6 Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Håkan Malmström, Ph.D., C6 Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Anders Ahlbom, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Karen Modig, Ph.D., Associate Professor, C6 Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden Human Lifetimes: Finite But Not Necessarily Bounded – Fei Huang, PhD., School of Risk & Actuarial Studies, UNSW Sydney; Ross Maller, Ph.D., Emeritus Professor, Xu Ning, Ph.D., Research School of Finance, Actuarial Studies & Statistics, Australian National University, Brandon Milholland, Ph.D., IQVIA Plymouth Meeting, PA."

Description: This is a collection of letters to the editor ranging from exam issues to probabilities to Medicare to stock prices and more.

Description: Mortality Model Selection and Combination in RAlternative approaches for selecting mortality models and forecasting mortality have been proposed. The usual practice is to base mortality forecasts on a single mortality model selected using in-sample goodness-of-fit measures. However, cross-validation and other alternative out-of-sample measures are increasingly being used in model selection, and model combination methods are becoming a common alternative to using a single mortality model. Such methods combine predictions from multiple mortality models to reduce model choice uncertainty and improve forecast accuracy. Explore techniques to select and combine mortality models using the freely available open source R package CoMoMo (https://github.com/kessysalvatory/CoMoMo), which extends the widely used R package StMoMo (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=StMoMo). We will use data for the USA and other countries to discuss and demonstrate four different model combination approaches including simple model averaging, Bayesian model averaging, model confidence set, and stacked regression ensembles.

Description: General Session

Description: Explore the National Academy of Medicine’s Global Roadmap for Healthy Longevity.AARP has been a primary sponsor of the Roadmap. The Roadmap defines Healthy Longevity as when years of good health approach the biological life span, with physical, cognitive, and social functioning that enables well-being and establishes 2050 as the target year to achieve this goal globally. This Roadmap establishes five overarching principles for healthy longevity.

Description: Getting people to think beyond retirement about future care needs and how they will be paid for is critical for a healthy aging plan. However, most people avoid the topic and make rushed decisions when finding long-term care services. Hear from experts in this advisory field explain what a successful plan looks like and what it takes to get people to plan ahead.