Description: Description of the vast variety of predictive analytics topics covered by the Forecasting & Futurism section and introduction to the July 2015 issue of the newsletter.

Description: Issue Introduction and editorial on how PAF tools and techniques can ease the angst of competing in the financial risk arena.

Description: A summary of the Global Trends 2030 report, the fifth such report produced every four years by the National Intelligence Council. The report is based on the research and analysis of the 17 major intelligence agencies in the US. The summary covers the highlights of the report.

Description: Feature article discussing the difficult situation of actuarial forecasting with little or no date.

Description: A significant fraction of insurance risk is characterized by the tail of the claims distribution, where we have much less data to model probabilities accurately. Ignoring the tails can lead to underpricing of tail risk and mispricing. Estimation of the tails can be complex due to a bias-variance tradeoff--the further out we go into the tail the more accurately we can model the extreme tail (lower bias) but the less data we have (increased variance). The statistical tools of Extreme Value Theory can be leveraged to more accurately estimate both the incidence and the severity of extreme events given that they occur. using the Generalized Pareto Distribution.

Description: A discussion on how the look of charts and graphs can affect comprehension of data.

Description: Editorial for the May 2019 issue of Predictive Analytics & Futurism newsletter.

Description: A Delphi Research Study of Long-Term Care Financing Solutions." Two members of the Project Oversight Group discuss the reasons for the study and the Delphi method and summarize the results of the study.

Description: Neural networks have fallen only to rise again twice. The latest incarnation borrows much from the past but adds elements to support deep learning. This article demonstrates the state of the art in deep neural network programming.

Description: History of Big Data, and approaches to cope with it. The author suggests that actuaries have been using similar methods for a long time; but need to get up to speed on the newer terms and variations.