Description: This paper uses a Bayesian approach to persistency to explore retirement cost projection variability. The analysis is divided into two parts. In the first part a subjective population projection model is developed, based on a beta-binomial distribution for the number of participants persisting through a given age. Probability statements regarding such items as the number of participants at a given age and the distribution of retirees are developed. The second part shows how the model might be used to generate confidence intervals for retirement cost projections. Both the single-entry-age case and the multiple-entry-age case are considered. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1979, Vol. 31.

Description: Suggestions have been made that life insurance cash values should depend on the prospective mortality, based on underwriting, of the insured evaluated at the time a cash value is applied for. This paper explores a simple model for determining cash values on such a basis and some practical problems associated with it.

Description: The report begins with Tan's paper Source-of-Earnings Analysis under FAS97 Universal Life Accounting that defines a procedure for analyzing the sources of profit. This paper extends the analysis to consider the effect of actual experience varying from expected and the effect of those variances on assumptions for the future. Also the paper illustrates examples of the effect of changing future assumptions or unlocking on the magnitude and incidence of profits and amortization. A discussion of the paper follows. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1990, Vol. 42.

Description: This paper describes an actuarial methodology [adjusted average per capita cost - AAPCC] developed to meet the requirements of the risk contract that the medicare program makes available to certain health maintenance organizations. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1981, Vol. 33.

Description: This paper discusses an example showing how simulation has been used to develop financial projections for variable life insurance with a guaranteed minimum death benefit and how recourse to mathematical analysis based on risk-theoretic considerations can enable us to see the impact of stock price changes more clearly. These projections reveal the effects of stock price fluctuations interacting with the more common elements, such as mortality and persistency, on the financial results of a variable life insurance operation.

Description: This paper presents formulas for the L-Function and shows this function has applications in computing survival rates free from the influence of a given cause of death.

Description: This paper looks at using an age adjustment to provide for anticipated future mortality improvements based on Ga-1951 Male Table. The use of a simple setback in age to provide for improving mortality has proven to be quite satisfactory and eliminates the expense of calculation and maintenance of voluminous projected tables. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: First demonstrates that the choice of mortality basis in the pre-retirement period is immaterial for a defined benefit plan, valued on the Aggregate method, with a pre-retirement death benefit equal to the present value of the accrued pension. Second, presents comparisons of contribution costs for Aggregate vs. Unit Credit funding methods.

Description: Article from Risk Management Newsletter, March 2006, No. 7 on Standard & Poor's Enterprise Risk Management evaluation of insurers. In October 2005, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services announced a new addition to the analysis process that leads to the ratings of insurers: Enterprise Risk Management ERM evaluation criteria.

Description: An analysis of population mortality at the older ages in the United States. The analysis is based principally on data obtained for calendar years 1968-69 in the operations of the Medicare program. In addition, the author develops mortality rates by single ages at the very high ages 85 and over, using the extinct cohort method based on deaths recorded through the vital statistics system in calendar years 1951-68.