Description: This paper provides some background about demography, health and retirement summarizes how current pension laws influence the design of pension plans and the timing of retirement and looks at the optimal retirement age from the perspective of employers, government and workers.

Description: This paper takes the position that the U.K. actuarial profession has still not come to a single view on financial economics, and the major divisions that remain continue to hamstring its policy development. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.

Description: This paper presents an approach to analyzing continuing care retirement community CCRC data and demonstrates the methodology by using data from a CCRC. From The Old-Age Crisis - Actuarial Opportunities - The 1996 Bowles Symposium, M-RS99-1.

Description: This paper discusses and reaches the conclusion that baby-boomers and younger workers need to be told that their Social Security benefits will be substantially less adequate than those of today's retirees, and that they need to know now so that they have time to take appropriate actions to have more retirement income available from other sources. From The Old-Age Crisis - Actuarial Opportunities - The 1996 Bowles Symposium, M-RS99-1.

Description: In this paper we study the pricing of financial options and contingent claims. We show that two time-honored concepts in actuarial science - the Esscher transform and the adjustment coefficient - are efficient tools for pricing many options and derivative securities if the logarithms of the prices of the primitive securities are certain stochastic processes with stationary and independent increments. We also study the pricing of American options on two stocks without expiration date and with payoff functions which are homogeneous with respect to the two stock prices.

Description: This is the fourth paper on n-year roll forward reserve financing of public benefit systems, especially Old-Age, Survivors and disability Insurance OASDI, prepared by University of Michigan faculty and students. As the papers have developed, some ideas have been simplified, while others have become more complex. It is concluded that the theoretical model requires further attention. This research can be extended to expand our knowledge of OASDI financing and the applicability of n-year roll forward reserve financing.

Description: In this paper,we present a method which first converges a two dimensional data to a univariate one and then uses the interval censoring technique to estimate the probability of failure of a Joint-life status from a heavily censored data. Our study shows that the life annuities of joint-life status calculated assuming independence overestimates the ones evaluated from an actual sample of population.

Description: By the use of resampling and extreme value statistics we will develop a method to reduce the time and costs of testing insurance company insolvency. Most ruin models require assumptions about the surplus distribution and/or assumptions about the claims count and severity distributions. The actuary may not be comfortable in making these ruin assumptions. Instead, he or she may generate such distributions by running extensive computer simulations of corporate models, I introduce a method to reduce the number of simulations necessary' to estimate the 1 and 0.1 percentiles of the surplus distribution. This approach 'cuts off' the tail at approximately the tenth percentile of the sample distribution and generates new tails for the distribution by resampling. Averages of the new order statistics approximate the I and 0.1 percentiles.

Description: This paper is a sequel to Shapiro et. al. in that it discusses a similar role for CAI in topics specific to the text Actuarial Mathematics, by Bowers et. al 1986. The topics covered are the previous topics of actuarial notation, basic concepts, and what-if analysis, along with some new ideas for the presentation of stochastic models.

Description: These are the abstract, outline, graphs and tables of the paper “Conclusions from Michigan Studies of Social Security Financing”. By such studies we mean the papers prepared during the past five years by actuarial students and Cecil Nesbitt, and which have appeared in ARCH. The paper is in three parts: A lengthy Abstract, followed by 17 pages of text, graphs, tables and references. The third part is a 10 page Appendix which gives the proofs of text statements.