Description: According to the Actuarial Standards Board’s Actuarial Standard of Practice No. 49 (ASOP 49), actuarially sound Medicaid managed care capitation rates will include a provision for underwriting gain in order to provide compensation for the risks assumed by an MCO. However, there is no generally accepted method for quantifying underwriting gain in managed Medicaid capitation rates. This article discusses a new model developed to address this void and calculate underwriting gain. The model was developed by researching existing financial literature and performing a statistical analysis of industry data to build out a framework that can be leveraged to estimate underwriting gain.

Description: After more than a decade of a prolonged low interest rate environment, long-term Treasury rates have started to increase with higher volatility. While it is generally agreed that a modest increase in interest rates and inflation is beneficial to the life insurance industry, interest rate risk remains a significant challenge for life insurance industry to manage its long duration liabilities, especially under volatile interest rate environments. Learn how to proactively manage interest rate risk and improve capital efficiency through the cash flow based strategic asset allocation (SAA) framework. Discover practical examples of how to combine asset allocation with derivatives to manage tail risk and liability convexity.

Description: Read the November 2019 issue of The Modeling Platform, published by the Modeling Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: This article discusses the advantages, logistical concerns, and pricing formulas of implementing a TNHP, in which members pay less for treatment from providers who meet higher quality and cost-effectiveness standards.

Description: In the context of reinsurance, this paper addresses finding the quota share retention level and the retention limit, with a diffusion process being added to the claim process, that maximizes the adjustment coefficient in the Sparre Anderson model. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2006.

Description: This paper presents a method that uses three-dimensional graphs to solve stationary population problems. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1981, Vol. 33.

Description: This article provides an an alternate, statistical approach, to graduation. Both single and multiple decrement models are considered and theoretical results are obtained for some specific mortality models. From: ACTUARIAL RESEARCH CLEARING HOUSE, 1979 VOL. 2.

Description: Learn more about the predictive modeling that was applied to industry data for the lapse and mortality experience in the post-level term period. Novel approaches were taken to model the shock lapse, subsequent lapse, and mortality experience. Observe a demonstration of the Tableau tool, which was built to allow users to analyze data on their own.

Description: In this presentation, actuaries and data scientists from Cleveland Clinic and Milliman discuss the development of a sepsis prediction model using machine learning. Presented with a unique challenge of handling massive amounts of data for near real-time risk scoring, the team took their model development to the cloud and delivered a product in less than a week through a unique virtual engagement.